WeTrade Observation: Next week's Federal Reserve speech and intensive release of global PMI

Next week (September 22-26), the global financial market will welcome a policy speech window after the end of the Federal Reserve's quiet period. The FOMC vote committee's intensive statements are still the focus of market attention. Coupled with key economic data such as the European and American PMI, the US core PCE, and the dynamics of multiple central banks, the US dollar index may enter a high volatility range. With the assistance of the WeTrade financial calendar, the market's attention to the "expectation gap" between policy signals and data verification is expected to increase.

Non US currencies such as the euro and pound may diverge with data and policy signals; Under the influence of inflation and policy uncertainty, there may be opportunities for gold to fluctuate upwards; Crude oil needs to closely monitor inventory data and changes in demand expectations.

Overall, if Federal Reserve officials release a dovish signal, it may suppress the US dollar and benefit gold; If the hawkish tone is more intense, it may increase the differentiation of the foreign exchange market and the volatility of risk assets. Investors also need to pay attention to the expected difference between the data and policy statements of major economies, and be aware of the short-term disturbances caused by unexpected news.

On Monday (September 22), the speech of Federal Reserve officials received attention, and the policy clues of the Reserve Bank of Australia also need to be monitored

On Monday morning at 9 o'clock, Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Brock will give a speech, which may reveal his views and policy tendencies on Australia's inflation and economy, directly affecting the trend of the Australian dollar and possibly forming a linkage with commodity currencies such as the New Zealand dollar.

In the afternoon, European economic data gradually emerged, and the difference in CBI industrial orders in the UK and the initial value of the Eurozone's September consumer confidence index will be released successively, both reflecting information on economic growth.

In the evening, speeches by members of the Federal Reserve kicked off. In 2025, FOMC voting committee member and St. Louis Fed Chairman Musalem (with a hawkish stance) will deliver a speech on the US economic outlook and monetary policy, which requires special attention; Subsequently, FOMC permanent voting committee member and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams (FOMC's "third in command") will speak out on monetary policy and economic prospects. As one of the core policy makers, its statement will affect the market's expectations of the Fed's subsequent interest rate path and have an impact on the US dollar and gold.

On Tuesday (September 23), the global PMI was released intensively, and stock market fluctuations may amplify. The speech of Federal Reserve officials received attention

On Tuesday, the market will usher in the "PMI Data Day", with intensive data releases during the Asia Europe period: initial manufacturing PMI values for France, Germany, and the Eurozone in September have been released successively, followed by the initial manufacturing and service PMI values for September in the UK, and the final release of the September manufacturing PMI values for the US in the evening. As a leading indicator reflecting the economic prosperity, whether PMI will boost or suppress global stock markets, the performance of this day's data is worth paying attention to; Through WeTrade's financial calendar, major economic data and speech milestones can also be synchronously tracked.

In addition to data, the Federal Reserve's "speech matrix" continues to exert force: on the same day, the 2026 FOMC voting committee, Cleveland Fed Chairman Hamack, the 2027 FOMC voting committee, Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin, and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic will successively give speeches on the economic situation. The three voting committees have different positions, and the market needs to focus on capturing their differences on inflation, employment, and interest rate paths.

On Wednesday (September 24th), crude oil inventories were closely monitored, and variables were added to the Bank of Canada and real estate data

On Wednesday, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, MacLehose, delivered a speech that may affect the Canadian dollar exchange rate. At the same time, both the US API and EIA will release crude oil inventory information.

In addition, data related to new home sales in the United States will be released on the same day. The sales of new houses are a leading indicator of the economy, which can to some extent reflect the potential for economic growth and the vitality of the industrial chain.

On Thursday (September 25th), employment and inflation data were released, and the Federal Reserve's speech received renewed attention

The main content on Thursday includes the number of initial jobless claims and last week's renewed jobless claims in the United States, as well as quarterly GDP, CPI, and core PCE data.

On the same day, the annualized total sales of existing homes in the United States for August will also be announced. Existing home sales account for 90% of US residential transactions and are considered a barometer of the real estate market. If the sales data of existing houses rebounds, reflecting the recovery of residents' housing demand, it may imply a strengthening of consumer confidence and support for the US dollar.

Federal Reserve officials followed up with speeches in the evening, with San Francisco Fed President Daly, Chicago Fed President Goolsby, and New York Fed President Williams speaking out one after another. Their statements on the status of the US dollar and monetary policy may trigger short-term fluctuations in the US dollar index.

Friday (September 26th), the finale of core PCE data in the United States

On Friday, Japan's inflation data was released first, with the release of the Tokyo CPI annual rate for September.

In the evening, the "finale data" of this week will be released, including the annual rate of the US August core PCE price index (an inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve focuses on), as well as the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September.

At the same time, San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daley and Federal Reserve Governor Bauman have given speeches, which may comment on the recently released PCE data.

Conclusion: Focus on clues in asset differentiation

The core contradiction in the global financial market next week lies in the interpretation of the Federal Reserve's policy signals and the verification of key economic data. For investors, it is important to pay close attention to US employment and inflation data, as well as differences in the wording of "interest rate maintenance duration" and "inflation target" by Federal Reserve officials. This is the key to judging the medium-term trend of the US dollar, and can also observe clues to foreign exchange and gold fluctuations caused by changes in the US dollar index.

Meanwhile, the intensive release of PMI will also have an impact on global stock markets. Afterwards, market participants can pay attention to the statements of the central banks of Canada and Australia to capture clues of fluctuations in the Canadian and Australian dollars.

Overall, next week's market volatility will revolve around "policy signals" and "data validation", with opportunities for both directions. By using WeTrade to monitor changes in the US dollar index, major currency pairs, and precious metal prices, investors still need to be alert to fluctuations caused by unexpected data and statements, and seek relatively certain opportunities in the volatility.