Super Week is coming: Japan's election and data-intensive global market outlook.

Next week (February 8-13), the global market will usher in the key window period of the Japanese election and the intensive landing of heavy economic data. The release of US non-agricultural data will be delayed, and the core economic indicators of China and the United States will be disclosed together. SMIC's fourth-quarter results will also be officially unveiled. From the political game of the Japanese election to the non-agricultural and CPI data anchored by the Federal Reserve's policy, from China's social financing credit and inflation data to the economic sentiment indicators of Europe and the United States, various core events and data are intertwined, each of which may cause severe market fluctuations. Investors need to plan ahead to deal with potential risks and opportunities.

Japan's general election kicks off, with constitutional amendments and policy games at the core

On Sunday (February 8), Japan will hold an early general election. The important thing to watch is whether the Liberal Democratic Party can win 310 seats in the House of Representatives (2/3), because the start of the constitutional amendment process requires the approval of more than 2/3 of the members of the Senate and the House of Representatives.

In addition, if the House of Representatives has 310 seats, it can also activate the "House Superiority System". Even if the Senate vetoes the bill, the House of Representatives can force it through with a two-thirds majority, which is of great significance to the advancement of policy.

Asian, European and American data are released simultaneously, and SMIC's performance is poised to be disclosed

On Monday (February 9), Japan released its adjusted trade balance for December, Europe released its consumer confidence index for February, and the more important US wholesale inventory monthly rate final value for December is a way to observe the US inventory cycle. SMIC will release its fourth-quarter results on Tuesday night.

Inflation expectations come first, and core data from China and the United States set economic fundamentals

On Tuesday (February 10), the New York Federal Reserve released its 1-3 year inflation forecast and gold price increase forecast. China's announcement of new RMB loans and social financing scale are two core achievement points about the Chinese economy.

China's M2 growth rate will be announced later,The scissors difference between M1 growth rate and M2 growth rate is a classic indicator to measure the active level of the marketThe positive scissors difference represents a recovery in investment, and everyone is willing to turn regular into current.

In the evening, the United States will release the monthly rate of retail sales, commonly known as the terror figure, as well as the import price index, a leading indicator of inflation and an external driver.

The non-agricultural finale debuts, and global data ushers in an intensive cash flow

Wednesday (February 11) is the focus of the week. The non-farm payroll data of the US Department of Labor scheduled for February 6 will be postponed for release today. Due to the fact that the previously released small non-farm ADP is less than expected, the number of new non-farm payrolls this time may be less than expected. However, due to the low level of the overall non-farm payroll, its influence is limited. Instead, the unemployment rate is still the most influential factor in the market.TMGMforeign exchange4.4% is the red line for the unemployment rate in the United States. If it exceeds the US dollar index, the suppression effect will be more obvious.

The two FOMC voting committees will give speeches that evening. In addition to non-agricultural products, there will be China's CPI and PPI data and crude oil inventories announced by API and EIA on the same day. At the same time, SMIC plans to hold a performance briefing for the fourth quarter of 2025.

The auction of US debt attracts attention, and economic data from Europe and the United States completes the fundamentals

On Thursday (February 12), the United States announced the results of the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate auction, which was less than expected to push up the yield of Treasury bonds, because the bid was more interesting between the non-farm and CPI data.

The auction of the 10-year Treasury note, sandwiched between the two core non-farm and CPI data, will amplify market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The UK reports December GDP, the US reports initial and renewed jobless claims, and later January existing home sales.

Inflation GDP in the United States and Europe ends, pre-holiday effects highlight market layout opportunities

On Friday (February 13), the United States released the year-on-year CPI data in January, which, combined with the non-agricultural data, will outline the next course of action of the Federal Reserve.

On the same day, the Eurozone released its fourth-quarter GDP data.The Spring Festival begins on February 15, and the pre-holiday effect of capital markets may be more obvious this week. Friday may be a cost-effective time for bottom fishing.

Risk Warning: General Election Variables and Policy Expectations Need Attention

In addition to the core economic data, investors also need to be vigilant of three latent risks: first, the political variables caused by the results of the Japanese election, if the change of the Liberal Democratic Party seats exceeds market expectations, it will directly lead to short-term sharp fluctuations in the yen and Japanese assets; second, after the Federal Reserve's non-agricultural and CPI data landed, if there is a significant revision in policy expectations, it will drive the US dollar index, US bond yields and global risk assets linked adjustment; third, before the Spring Festival, capital fluctuations superimposed on the performance disclosure of Chinese companies may trigger emotional fluctuations in class A shares and Hong Kong stocks related sectors, and the risk of short-term market liquidity tightening needs to be vigilant.