Citicorp futures: Fed QE expectations boost, copper prices or volatile strong

Copper: Shanghai copper opened high and went low on Wednesday night, the main contract ran to the lower edge of 92,000 yuan, and London copper rose to around $11,550. Macro neutral. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as scheduled overnight, although the dot plot forecast shows that interest rates will be cut by only 25 basis points in 2026, and Powell has not yet expressed his position on the path of future interest rate cuts, but the Fed will buy 40 billion short-term every month before Q2. The expectation of improved liquidity still brings a boost. The dollar plunged and fell, and the US copper rose by more than 1% to 540.8 cents in the morning. The fundamentals are more neutral. Yesterday, the copper warehouse order of the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased by 600 tons to 29,000 tons, and the LME copper depot was 700 tons to 165,000 tons. SDIA and

US energy infrastructure developers signed 200 million Korean won LFP battery supply agreement, SMM expects global energy storage battery consumption to increase by more than 50% year-on-year this year. Overall, overseas liquidity is expected to improve, superimposed copper raw material supply is tight, demand is expected to be warm, macro and structural strengthening is expected to consolidate the price center to maintain a high level. Today's main operating range of copper in Shanghai and Shanghai is 91,500-93,000 yuan/ton. Strategically, short-term light warehouse tests are more set up to stop losses.

Stock index futures: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.23%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.29%, the growth enterprises market index fell 0.02%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 0.03%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.14%, the Shanghai Composite 50 fell 0.31%, the CSI 500 rose 0.49%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.37%. The turnover of the two cities was 1.778505 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 125.448 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan-level industries, the best performing industries were: real estate (2.53%), commercial and retail (1.97%), and social services (1.22%). The worst performing industries were: banks (-1.58%), power equipment (-0.87%), and computers (-0.63%). In terms of basis, the basis of the four major futures indices was slightly stronger than the previous trading day. The annualized returns on the current contract period of IH and IF in the current quarter were -2.30% and -4.80% respectively, and the annualized returns on the current contract period of IC and IM in the current quarter were -11.40% and -14.80%. In terms of hedging, short hedging may consider quarterly contracts. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly lower and rebounded after bottoming out. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower and the Shenzhen Composite Index closed slightly higher. The turnover of the two markets fell again compared with the previous trading day. Yesterday, real estate, commercial retail, social services and other industries rose at the top, while banking, power equipment, computers and other sectors fell at the top; in terms of first-class industries, the real estate sector rebounded after consecutive downturns yesterday, while the dividend industry sector represented by banks continued to decline, indicating that risk aversion is gradually fading, and funds may flow out of the dividend sector. In terms of indices, yesterday's small and medium-cap index performed slightly better than the broader index, but there was no obvious style differentiation. Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced inflation data in November, CPI growth rate expanded, PPI continued to rise or show that our country's policy to promote consumption and expand domestic demand is continuing to take effect, the price index is expected to rise steadily, looking forward to the macroeconomic indicators are expected to rise steadily, it is recommended to maintain IF, IM multiple single holding.

Treasury bond futures: On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures rose. Unilaterally, according to the closing price, the 30-year main contract rose by 0.3%, the 10-year main contract rose by 0.06%, the 5-year main contract rose by 0.06%, and the 2-year main contract rose by 0.04%. The yield to maturity of 30-year active government bonds fell by 1.75bp to 2.236%, the yield to maturity of 10-year active government bonds was flat at 1.835%, and the yield to maturity of 2-year active government bonds fell by 1.05bp to 1.387%. In terms of futures cross-variety spreads, 4TS-T, 2TF-T and 3T-TL changed by 0.084 yuan, 0.06 yuan and -0.16 yuan respectively. Unilateral strategy: futures bonds continue to rise, TL oversold rebound mainly, on the one hand, the expected export and inflation data landing means that the fundamental bearish is close to the end, on the other hand, the equity market falls more and rises less on the TL rebound also constitutes emotional support. Cross-variety strategy: The strategy portfolio of multi-T and short TL has made a lot of profits in the early stage. At present, the strategy is facing a decline in cost performance, but the spread trend is friendly to it. It is recommended to gradually reduce the arbitrage portfolio. Hedging strategy: T net basis convergence, it is expected that there is still room for upward, it is recommended to continue to hold the T basis long portfolio.

Methanol: In terms of spot prices, Daqi 1975, Luoyang 2110, Lubei 2240; upstream factories continue to make profit freight price cuts and auctions, traders buy on dips, and the market atmosphere is more positive. In the short term, coal is weak and volatile, and methanol factory profits have improved to a certain extent; production areas are running at high levels, inventory pressure is small, and there is fixed price support; there are fewer vehicles in the logistics market, and automobile transportation prices continue to remain high; traditional downstream enters the off-season, large-scale end points in East China are overhauled as scheduled, and new large-scale end point production plans in South China are concerned. Overseas high shipments continue,AohuiPort inventories are difficult to lose in the short term; Iran's daily output is near 15,000 tons, and the rate is expected to decrease this month; import delivery still maintains a positive profit, and paper cargo costs are supported weakly. On Wednesday, the spot basis in East China was 01 + 28, and the 12 was 01 + 10, and the spot basis was stronger. In the short term, the fundamentals of methanol have not changed much, and the kinetic energy of 01 surge depends on changes in the remaining devices in the Middle East and warehouse receipts; medium and long-term attention is paid to the weather in the Middle East and the environmental protection policy of the origin. In operation, short-term methanol fluctuates in a narrow range, focusing on port basis and inventory changes. Methanol 2601 refers to the shock range of 230-2150 yuan/ton; methanol 2601-2605 refers to the shock range of -100 to -50 yuan/ton

Rebar: Rebar production decreased by 167,700 tons last week, inventory decreased by 276,700 tons, table demand decreased by 109,600 tons, supply and demand decreased, and data was neutral. Steel mill profits continued to decline, molten iron production decreased slightly, and finished product output was affected by the depth of the off-season and production losses. There is still room for supply reduction; short-term demand is supported by rushing to work at the end of the year, but the marginal weakening under the off-season effect. The fundamentals of rebar did not improve under the situation of double weak supply and demand. After the cost support weakened, steel prices were easy to bear pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate under the realistic game.

Hot coil: last week's hot rolling production decreased by 47,000 tons, inventory decreased by 5,500 tons, and the table demand decreased by 53,600 tons. During the policy window, the supply pressure of hot coil has not been solved. Although the inventory has been reduced again, the demand toughness is in doubt, the fundamental improvement is limited, and the upward drive is not strong. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate. Strategically, the short-term operating range of thread 2605 refers to 3050-3180 yuan/ton; the operating range of hot coil 2605 contract refers to 3240-3350 yuan/ton.

Urea: In terms of spot prices, the market price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, and the market price in Henan is 1690 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere of the domestic urea market has picked up to a certain extent, and the downstream rigid demand orders follow up to support the bottom demand. On the supply side, the daily output of urea is about 200,000 tons, which continues to be at a high level. The inventory of upstream manufacturers has increased to a certain extent compared with the previous cycle; some gas head enterprises in the southwest will enter the maintenance season, and the regional quotation is still relatively strong. Reserve demand is gradually released, and the start of compound fertilizer factories is expected to be sufficient. There is a certain rigid demand for raw material urea procurement. Pay attention to the transaction of new orders. Export sources are gradually concentrated at ports, but due to the rise in mainland prices, the slope of port inventory In the short term, the demand for urea will improve, but the overall supply and demand are still loose, with wide fluctuations and concerns about reserve demand.

Soda ash: Soda ash futures fell sharply on Wednesday, and spot prices held steady to fall. Commodity markets were mixed on Wednesday, and market sentiment was weak. From a fundamental perspective, soda ash maintenance arrangements have increased recently. Last week, soda ash production increased by 6,000 tons to 704,000 tons month-on-month. Recently, production has declined, and supply-side pressure has temporarily decreased. Downstream demand has declined slightly. The latest soda plant inventory decreased by 36,000 tons to 1.503 million tons month-on-month compared with last Thursday. The latest delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 48,000 tons to 509,000 tons compared with the previous week. Last week, float glass cold-repaired 3 production lines and ignited 1 production line. Photovoltaic glass production line did not change; glass ignited 1 production line this week. Recently, the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, the demand for heavy alkali has dropped slightly, the demand for light alkali has temporarily stabilized, and the purchasing enthusiasm of mid- and downstream is acceptable. In October, soda ash imports fell slightly to 300 tons, exports rose to 214,500 tons, and exports increased. On the macro side, the recent domestic real estate sales data fell month-on-month, lower than the level of the same period last year; foreign macro effects were favorable (the US dollar index fell, trade friction concerns weakened); domestic policy disturbances weakened, and expectations were pessimistic. On the whole, short-term soda ash losses have increased, supply has declined at a high level, demand is weak, new production capacity is expected to be put under pressure, and futures prices are mainly weak and volatile. On the warehouse side, soda ash The short-term soda ash futures price is temporarily weak and fluctuates, and SA2601 refers to the 1080-1120 range within the day.

Glass: Glass futures fell slightly on Wednesday, and spot prices held steady to decline. Short-term glass fundamentals did not change much, and supply pressure weakened. Last week, glass production fell slightly month-on-month, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and inventories fell month-on-month. The latest glass inventory fell by 146,000 tons to 2.972 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year. Last week, glass cold repair 3 production lines and ignition 1 production line; this week, glass ignition 1 production line. Recently, the daily melting volume of glass has declined. The latest daily melting volume in production is 154985T/D, a decrease of about 2.6% year-on-year. From January to October, the completed area of domestic houses decreased by about 16.9% year-on-year (the decrease increased). The recent real estate sales data decreased month-on-month, lower than the level of the same period last year. The number of new glass deep processing orders increased by 0.2 days to 10.1 days, down 17.9% year-on-year. Short-term glass supply declined, demand expectations were weak, and futures prices were temporarily weak and volatile. Short-term glass futures prices were weak and volatile. FG2601 refers to 950-980 within days.