Crude oil price rebound is limited, how to pay attention to TMGM foreign exchange in the box shock

In the Asian session on Wednesday, Brent crude oil was trading at $65.03/barrel, and U.S. WTI crude oil was trading at $60.92/barrel, approaching the intensive pressure range after two consecutive days of gains.

Market analysts believe that the latest US restrictions on Russia's energy sector have gradually penetrated the export chain, causing some buyers to reassess import risks.

According to market research, five major Indian refineries have not yet placed orders for Russian crude oil purchases in December, indicating signs of limited export flows.

Meanwhile, Russian energy company Lukoil declared a state of "force majeure" at its West Qurna 2 oilfield in Iraq, further reflecting the restrictions affecting its overseas operations.

Asian markets are watching cautiously as supply chain uncertainty rises

"There are indications that Asian buyers are becoming more cautious in their purchases of Russian crude," said analysts at Commerzbank. "However, Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to circumvent restrictions and maintain export channels over the past three years."

This view suggests that, despite the temporary withdrawal of some buyers, Russia's flexibility to maintain exports through alternative means such as "shadow fleets," intermediate trade, and currency settlements remains.

The market generally expects that if restrictions are further tightened or insurance and transportation restrictions are intensified, global supply will be further disrupted, providing continued support for oil prices.

The Dynamic Balance of Geopolitical Risk and Price Support

The current rebound in oil prices is mainly driven by two factors: one is the expectation of supply contraction caused by restrictions, and the other is the defensive pricing of the market for the disruption of Russian oil exports. But if Russia finds new sales channels again or Asian demand resumes, the upward momentum of oil prices may be weakened.

"The short-term rise in oil prices reflects a risk premium rather than structural changes in supply and demand. If the market confirms that Russia can still maintain export volumes, oil prices may correct again," said Energy Strategy Advisors. For investors watching international markets,TMGMForex PlatformIt can provide timely market trends for reference.

From the daily chart, the WTI crude oil price has been running above the 9-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMA) recently, indicating that the short-term bullish momentum is still solid. The price formed a solid support area near $60/barrel and has since rebounded. The short-term target looks at the $62.50 to $63 range.

In terms of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 55-60 range, indicating that buying forces are dominant but have not yet entered overbought territory. If the price can break through the $63 mark and close there steadily, the market outlook is expected to further test the medium-term pressure level of $65;

On the contrary, if it falls below the 20-day moving average, it may return to the support level of $59.80. Overall, the daily structure remains moderately bullish, but the upside still depends on whether the restrictive effect can continue to compress the supply side.

editorial opinion

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From a trend perspective, the sustainability of the rise in oil prices still depends on the strength of restrictions and the speed of the buyer's market response. Although the current cautious attitude of Asian countries is putting pressure on the supply side, the level of global crude oil inventories and the production adjustment capacity of non-Russian oil-producing countries are still balancing factors.

If Russian export restrictions continue in the coming weeks, oil prices are expected to continue to rebound. This week, we need to pay attention to the changes in inventory data. For investors who want to seize the opportunity of volatility, tracking related varieties through TMGM foreign exchange may be a viable option.