Zhonghui Analysis: Repeated Geopolitical Situation Inflation Concerns Add to Gold Pressure

According to market news, there have been rumors of blocked access to key international energy transportation routes recently, and changes in the regional situation have triggered fluctuations in the crude oil market. The latest data show that as of April 23, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil once returned to triple digits, reaching $103.30/barrel, an increase of about 1.37% from the previous day, while the price of WTI crude oil once approached $98/barrel. According to the observation of Zhonghui Market, such situations have also raised inflation expectations.

Crude oil prices rose and then fell in early trading, and are still operating in a small range of fluctuations. This trend is mainly due to the high degree of market uncertainty about the resumption of traffic in the transportation corridor and the actual impact of the decline in the actual traffic volume of the corridor. The corridor usually carries about one-fifth of the world's oil transportation volume. If it is restricted for a long time, it will put pressure on global energy supplies, especially the main consumer countries that rely on imports.

In addition, some unconfirmed news from the region recently further exacerbated the risk aversion mood swing in the market.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, recently pointed out: "Brent crude oil's return to triple-digit prices has kept inflation concerns in the spotlight and put gold on the defensive today." He further stressed that investors are concerned that the current stalemate may last for a long time, turning a short-term price surge into a long-term inflation anchor; from an asset yield perspective, this will be bearish for gold. This view is highly consistent with the market logic that high oil prices drive up inflation expectations through cost transmission, and high energy prices may force central banks to maintain a higher interest rate path, thereby suppressing the performance of interest-free assets.

The comparison between oil prices and gold highlights the following differences:

The continued blockage of energy transportation corridors not only directly affects oil supply, but also indirectly drives up global inflationary pressures through rising transportation costs and supply chain disruptions. For large economies, the increase in energy import costs may be transmitted to the manufacturing, logistics and consumer sectors, which in turn affects overall economic growth expectations. At the same time, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, should benefit when geopolitical risks heat up, but the dual pressure on inflation and yields triggered by the current high oil price has caused it to face periodic suppression.

Overall, the market is caught in a complex balancing act of uncertainty and supply disruption fears, with any signs of easing likely to quickly reverse oil prices, while persistent tensions would entrench inflationary expectations with far-reaching implications for global asset allocation.

Editor's summary:

The evolution of the situation in the energy region will continue to dominate the short-term pricing logic of commodities and safe-haven assets. Investors need to pay close attention to official news and the actual situation of transportation corridors, and balance risk and policy factors to adjust their positions.