ATFX-rate hike option still on the table? Watch out for Powell's eagle at next week's blockbuster meeting

atfxAfter the release of the strong "terror data", economists said that the Federal Reserve may notYes.Therefore, it is relieved that interest rate hike options are still on the table, and Powell mayYes.In the upcoming blockbusterYes.The eagle was released...

The July retail sales report showed that sales rose nearly twice as fast as economists had expected, further indicating that consumption was more resilient than many had expected。

Although optimistic data has led economists to predict that the U.S. economy will notYes.It will contract next year as originally expected, but there are also some concerns.Excessive prosperity could mean the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates again to keep inflation in checkcool down。

Oxford Economics' chief U.S. economist wrote on Tuesday,"This strong growth is notYes.Reassure Fed officials and keep the risk of tightening monetary policy largely on the negotiating table "。“Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Seminar next weekYes.Up, very likelyYes.Take a tough stance "。

Last month, Powell was responding to "whether strong spendingYes.Reigniting inflation, or whether this is good news, "he said," [it reflects] the resilience of the broader economy。The fact that we've been able to disinflate so far without having any meaningful negative impact on the overall strength of the labor market and the economy is a good thing, "he added." You can see that consumer confidence is rising and things like that are happening。This will support future economic activity. "。“However, on the margins,Over time, stronger growth could lead to higher inflation, which would requirepassedMonetary policy should respond appropriately。So weYes.Look closely. Look at it.Yes.It evolves over time. "。

ATFX official website - The Federal Reserve's outlook has become more complex

Powell's last Federal Reserve press releaseYes.The above remarks were made on Facebook, when the Federal Reserve also announced another interest rate hike, pushing interest rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest level since 2001。Since then, in Julynon-agriculturalThe employment report shows that the labor marketpresentcool downtrendThe unemployment rate is at a historic low, and wage growth, a potential indicator of future spending, rose 4.4 percent.。

The retail sales report for July revealed that retail sales rose 0.7% for the month, whileMake a direct contribution to GDPcontrolControl group retail sales up 1.0%。Economists surveyed by foreign media had expected that,controlControl group onlyYes.Up 0.5%。

The two industries that saw the largest increases in retail sales in July were non-physical retailers, including e-commerce, and sporting goodsshowEven as services drive spending in post-epidemic economy, Americans are still buying goods。Economists at Citi say,This could pose a problem for inflation。

Gisel Hoxha, an analyst at Citi U.S. Economic Research, wrote in a note on Tuesday, "The resilience of the U.S. consumer complicates the Federal Reserve's outlook"The unexpected rise in demand for commodities means that upside risks to prices have increased for an inflation category that has been rather weak this year."。

Despite this, July's inflation data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.2% for the second consecutive month, marking the first time since February 2021 that the core CPI has registered such a low increase in consecutive months。The report shows "convincing" signs,showThe price pressure is easing, and the Federal Reserve will respond in SeptemberYes.The suspension of interest rate hikes clears the way。

The July retail sales report did little to change that statement。According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, as of Tuesday afternoon, investors expected an 88.5% chance of a pause in interest rate hikes in September, up 2% from the previous week.。

"I don't think their intention is to restrain growth," said Gargi Chaudhuri, head of investment strategy at BlackRock iShares. "Their intention is to fight inflation。So if economic growth is still strong and inflation is falling... it's too early to say。But we've seen it for two months.GoodThe low inflation。If this continues, I don't think they need to raise interest rates further. "。