High interest rates continue to pressure! Industrial foreign exchange economists believe that the US labor market is cooling

U.S. employers reported a decrease in job openings last month.ThisFurther demonstrate that with the economyexistUnder the weight of high interest rates, the strong labor market is slowing downexistGradually cool down.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that seasonally adjusted job openings fell 338,000 to 8.80 million in July from the previous month.ThisThis is the lowest level since March 202,ButstillMuch higher than pre-epidemic levels and the number of unemployed 5.80 million in July.

Job openings soared to a record 12 million in March 2022 as employers scrambled to recruit workers amid widespread labour shortages. This year, vacancies have fallen as interest rates rise and employers cut hiring plans.

As employer demand for workers has eased and more people have joined the workforce, wage growth and hiring have slowed in recent months.

ButThe labor market remains strongThe unemployment rate stood at 3.5% last month, close to a 50-year low. The number of layoffs remained unchanged last monthexist1.60 million unchanged. Wages are rising faster than inflation, helping to stimulate consumer spending.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply to fight inflation by slowing economic growth, including job and wage growth that could exacerbate price pressures.

Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell hinted on Friday that the Federal Reserve couldexistKeep interest rates unchanged at the next policy meeting in September.ButIf the economy does not slow further, there is a possibility of interest rate hikes later this yearstillspontaneous existenceexist。

He last weekexistSpeaking at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, he noted that while job openings have declined,ButUnemployment in the United StatesandNo increase, he claimsThisIs "a very popularButexisthistoryandThe unusual results seem to reflect the impact on the workforceexuberantDemand "。

The Labor Department said job openings in the information, transportation, and warehousing industries rose in July, while job openings in the professional and business services, health care, and government sectors declined.

Robert Frick, a corporate economist at the Navy's Federal Credit Union, said the labor market was "positiveexistReturn fastertoAverage ""Many industries are full of people"

The resignation rate (i.e. the proportion of people quitting their jobs as a percentage of total employment) fell slightly to 2.3% in July from 2.4% in JuneexistBefore the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the resignation rate averaged 2.3 percent.

Industrial foreign exchangeEconomists believe that the high resignation rate indicates that employees are confident in finding jobstoAnother job with equal or higher payexistArrived in April 2022to3% of recent highs.

According to economist Nick Bunker,As fewer people quit their jobs, employers are likely to lose their jobsFind the right employeeFill vacancies rather than poach already employed employees from existing positions. He said,ThisThis could help explain the unemployment rateexistLow.

"The Fed would have preferred a significant reduction in job openings, and there are signs of loosening in the job market," Mr. Bunker said. "Fewer people are changing jobs, so the temperature of the labour market is down," he added.

US adds 187,000 non-farm payrolls in JulyJob positionThis reflects a slowdown in the job market this summer.ButThe foundation remains solid. The Labor Department will release its August jobs report on Friday.Industrial foreign exchangeEconomists estimate that...August non-agriculturalJob positionWill increase 170,000The unemployment rateexpectedkeepexist3.5%。ThisYesexistOne of several key data points ahead of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision.

Although inflation has slowed sharply from its recent peak in June 2022,ButA resilient labor market, stronger-than-expected economic growth, and a slowdownButSolid wage growthstillIs one of the factors contributing to the continued pressure on the Federal ReserveOfficials last month raised the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% -5.5%, the highest level in 22 yearsPowell has said the Fed wants to seetoWage growth has slowed to a level more in line with its 2% inflation target.

Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at job search site Glassdoor, said the factors that are forcing people to quit areexistWeakening, for exampleJob hoppingYou can get a better salary.

"Job vacanciesexistPlay an important role in driving wage growth ", Terrazas said." VoluntaryJob hoppingFewer and fewer people,ThismeansJob hoppingtoThere are also fewer and fewer people in higher-paying jobs. "