CBOT position: Soybean long-short game is heating up! Corn position exposes short ambition, countdown to breaking position?

On Tuesday (July 8), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grain futures market showed a divergent trend, and market sentiment was affected by the improvement of domestic crop growth conditions in the United States, international trading dynamics, and the adjustment of speculative fund positions. Corn futures continued to decline, hitting a near-one-week low, with the main contract price falling to $4.20/bushel; soybean futures were basically flat at 10.20-3/4/bushel; wheat futures fell slightly, closing at $5.47/bushel; soybean meal and soybean oil futures showed varying degrees of volatility due to fundamental factors and changes in positions.

The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that the US corn crop rating has risen, the weather conditions are favorable for crop growth, and the supply expectations in South America are superimposed, and the overall market is under pressure. Speculative funds have increased their net short positions in corn and wheat, while the changes in positions in soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil reflect the divergence of market sentiment. This article will analyze the current sentiment of the CBOT grain futures market and its impact on price movements based on the latest position data, basis dynamics and international trading conditions, and look forward to the future direction.

According to foreign exchange analysis observations, the results estimated by overseas traders show that:

On July 7, 2025, the Commodity Fund:

Increase CBOT corn speculative net short; increase CBOT soybean speculative net long; increase CBOT wheat speculative net short; increase CBOT soybean meal speculative net long; increase CBOT soybean oil speculative net long.

In the last five trading days, commodity funds:

Increase CBOT corn speculative net short; increase CBOT soybean speculative net short; increase CBOT wheat speculative net short; increase CBOT soybean meal speculative net long; increase CBOT soybean oil speculative net short;

The latest 30 trading days, commodity funds:

Increase CBOT corn speculative net short; increase CBOT soybean speculative net short; increase CBOT wheat speculative net short; increase CBOT soybean meal speculative net short; increase CBOT soybean oil speculative net long.

The specific change data is shown in the chart.

Corn: Supply pressures dominate, bears intensify

The corn futures market continued its weakness at the start of the week. The CBOT December corn contract (CZ25) fell 16-1/4 cents to close at 4.20-3/$4/bushel, close to the July 2 low of $4.19/bushel. In terms of fundamentals, the USDA report showed that the US corn crop rating rose to 74% in excellent condition, up 1 percentage point from last week and the highest level for the same period since 2018. Rain in the US Plains and Midwest improved soil moisture. The weather forecast shows moderate temperatures this week, which is conducive to the growth of corn during the critical pollination period. Market participants pointed out that ideal weather conditions strengthened the market's expectations for abundant US corn production, suppressing the upside of futures prices. In terms of international transactions, the USDA confirmed that the United States sold 135,000 tons of corn to Mexico, of which 106,000 tons were delivered in the 2025/26 year, indicating that export demand exists but the increase is limited. The second-season corn harvest in south-central Brazil accelerated, but only 28% was completed, far lower than 63% in the same period last year, indicating that South American supply has not yet been fully released, but the expected high yield has put pressure on the market.

Position data show that on July 7, commodity funds sold a net 12,000 corn futures contracts, increasing speculative net short positions. In the last five trading days, the fund has accumulated 33,500 net short hands, and the net short of 30 trading days has increased by 86,100 hands, reflecting speculators' strong bearish sentiment on corn prices in the medium and long term. In terms of basis, the corn basis of ethanol plants in the Midwest of the United States rose slightly, such as the ethanol plant basis in Union City, Indiana, was raised, but the basis of other processing plants fell slightly, indicating that the cash market active level is limited, and farmers are reluctant to sell due to low prices. Market sentiment is dominated by the expectation of abundant supply, compounded by export competition pressure, corn futures may continue to fluctuate at a low level near $4.20/bushel in the short term. In the future, we need to pay attention to the USDA supply and demand report and the further confirmation of South American production data. If there is no significant improvement in export demand, the upward potential for prices is limited.

Soybeans: The long-short game intensifies, and prices remain stable for a breakthrough

The soybean futures market performed smoothly. The CBOT November soybean contract (SX25) fell 28-1/2 cents to close at 10.20-3/$4/bushel, indicating that the market is looking for support at a low level. In terms of fundamentals, the USDA report shows that the excellent and good rate of the US soybean crop remains at 66%, down 2 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating that crop growth conditions are stable but not significantly improved. The weather forecast shows that warm weather and intermittent rainfall in the Midwest of the United States are conducive to soybean growth, but the market's concerns about high yield expectations in South America and export competition limit the room for price rebound. In terms of international transactions, major Korean feed groups issued 60,000 tons of soybean meal purchase invite tenders, allowing US soybean sources, but low-price competition in South America may weaken the US market share.

In terms of position data, commodity funds sold a net 11,000 soybean futures contracts on July 7, but increased speculative net long positions in a single day, indicating that the short-term long-short game intensified. In the last 5 trading days, the fund turned to net short and increased its holdings by 7,500 contracts, and the cumulative net short in 30 trading days increased by 3,000 contracts, indicating that medium and long-term bearish sentiment is dominant. In terms of basis, the soybean basis at river terminals in the Midwest of the United States has risen steadily, such as Davenport, Iowa and Morris, Illinois. The basis is raised, reflecting the support of cash market demand. Market sentiment is affected by the balance of supply and demand and international competition. Soybean futures may fluctuate in the range of $10.00-10/bushel in the short term. Pay attention to USDA export sales data and South American production estimates for further guidance.

Wheat: Short covering slows down, prices are under pressure

The wheat futures market continued to be weak. The CBOT September hard red winter wheat contract (KWU25) fell 8-1/2 cents to close at 5.27-1/2/bushel. On the fundamentals, the USDA report shows that the US winter wheat harvest progress reached 53%, slightly lower than the five-year average of 54%, but better than the market expectation of 49%. The crop yield remained unchanged at 48%, with no improvement, indicating that supply pressure is still there. In terms of international transactions, Bangladesh and Jordan issued 50,000 tons and 120,000 tons of wheat procurement invite tenders respectively, indicating stable global demand, but the competitiveness of US wheat exports is limited. South Korean flour mills recently rejected US wheat quotations, highlighting the fierce market competition.

Position data show that on July 7, commodity funds sold a net 4,500 wheat futures contracts, increasing speculative net short positions. In the last 5 trading days, net short increased by 10,000 lots, and the cumulative net short increased by 13,000 lots in 30 trading days, reflecting speculators' bearish sentiment on wheat prices. In terms of basis, the basis of hard red winter wheat in the US plains was stable, and farmers were reluctant to sell due to low prices, limiting the active level of the cash market. Market sentiment is suppressed by abundant global supply and weak export demand. In the short term, wheat futures may run at a low level of $5.20-5/bushel. It is necessary to pay attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the potential impact of global procurement dynamics on prices.

Soybean meal: Weak demand depresses prices, short-term bullish sentiment is limited

Soybean meal futures market performance was sluggish. The CBOT August soybean meal contract (SMQ25) fell by $5.20 to close at $272.20/short ton, close to the contract low. In terms of fundamentals, the US Midwest cash market soybean meal basis quotation was stable, but trading was light, and some processing plants were shut down due to long holidays, limiting the market activity level. The USDA report showed that the US soybean crush volume in May was 203.70 million bushels, lower than market expectations 204.70 million bushels, reflecting weak demand. In terms of international transactions, China approved the import of soybean meal from Ethiopia, and Argentina's soybean meal exports to China increased, indicating that global supply diversification has suppressed the price of US soybean meal.

In terms of position data, commodity funds sold 4,000 soybean meal futures contracts on July 7, but increased speculative net long positions in a single day, indicating that short-term bulls are trying to enter the market. In the last 5 trading days, net long positions increased by 6,000, but net short positions increased by 29,000 in 30 trading days, indicating that medium and long-term bearish sentiment is dominant. Market participants pointed out that global feed demand is stable but not strong growth, and South American abundant production is expected to further suppress prices. Soybean meal futures may fluctuate in the short-term range of 270-280 US dollars/short ton. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in global feed demand and South American supply data.

Soybean oil: Biofuel demand is supported, and bullish sentiment prevails

The soybean oil futures market performed relatively strongly, benefiting from the favorable biofuel policy and the growth of global vegetable oil demand. The CBOT August soybean oil contract price was supported, and the position data reflected market confidence. On July 7, commodity funds sold a net 3,000 soybean oil futures contracts, but increased speculative net long positions in a single day. In the last 5 trading days, the net short increased by 9,000 contracts, but the net long increased by 24,000 lots in 30 trading days, indicating that speculators have strong confidence in the future market of soybean oil. In terms of basis, the US Midwest soybean oil basis was stable, and the demand in the export market was stable. In terms of international transactions, invite tenders from South Korea and Algeria showed stable global oil demand, and the USDA confirmed that the US soybean oil export data supported market sentiment.

Market participants believe that global population growth and long-term growth in biofuel demand are providing support for soybean oil prices, but short-term fluctuations in palm oil prices may bring uncertainties. Soybean oil futures may continue to be strong in the short term, with prices fluctuating in the range of 41-43 cents/pound. It is necessary to pay attention to global oil market dynamics and USDA export data.

Outlook on future trends

The CBOT cereal future market is expected to continue to diverge in the short term. Corn is expected to be high yield in the United States and export competition pressure, and the price may fluctuate at a low level near $4.20/bushel; soybeans may operate in the range of $10.00-10/bushel under the influence of supply and demand balance and international competition; wheat prices may remain low at $5.20-5/bushel due to abundant global supply and weak export demand; soybean meal prices may fluctuate in the range of $270-280/tonne due to weak demand and South American supply pressure; soybean oil prices are expected to remain strong in the range of 41-43 cents/pound due to biofuel demand support. Future market movements will depend on USDA supply and demand reports, South American production data and global demand dynamics, and traders need to closely monitor the results of international invited tenders and the further impact of policy changes on export expectations.