August 28 Financial Breakfast: The choice of the Federal Reserve Chair will be announced in the golden autumn, safe haven support for gold prices approaching 3400, silver may face high tariffs

On Thursday (August 28, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $3,398/oz, as investors closely watched the upcoming inflation data for clues to cut interest rates. After President Trump tried to fire a Federal Reserve governor, market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve lingered to support gold prices. U.S. crude oil traded around $63.77/barrel, and oil prices closed higher on Wednesday after data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected. At the same time, investors evaluated the potential impact of new U.S. tariffs on India.

Focus on the day

stock market

The S & P 500 index hit a record close on Wednesday as the market awaits the most closely watched event of the week, Nvidia's quarterly earnings, which will test the market that has driven surging valuations of artificial intelligence-related companies. Some investors believe these valuations are too high.

Shares in Nvidia, the world's most valuable company and a leading supplier of cutting-edge AI processors, fluctuated between gains and losses ahead of the earnings announcement, which will be released after the close.

Since NVIDIA accounts for about 8% of the S & P 500 index, its financial performance will affect the large number of Americans who rely on index funds for their retirement savings.

Jed Ellerbroek, a portfolio manager at Argent Capital, said that Nvidia will achieve significant revenue growth over the next nine months, building on its already large revenue base. Investors should prepare for a world where Nvidia accounts for a double-digit share of the S & P 500 index.

Shares of the tech and AI giants, which along with Alphabet and Amazon are important customers of Nvidia, were mixed, with Microsoft up nearly 1 percent and Meta Platforms down nearly 1 percent.

The enthusiasm for AI-related companies has fueled a sharp rise in technology stocks. According to the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the S & P 500 index now has a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 22 times, the highest in four years.

Last week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned of a possible AI bubble, raising concerns about the speed of the AI market.

Nvidia's options trend suggests that the stock price could fluctuate by about 6% after the earnings release. Investors will be closely watching the impact of the trade war on its business and the impact of its recent revenue-sharing agreement with the U.S. government on future expectations.

The S & P 500 rose 0.24 percent to 6481.40, surpassing its record close set on Aug. 14. The Nasdaq rose 0.21 percent to 21,590.14, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.32 percent to 45,565.23.

Eight of the 11 sector indices in the S & P 500 index rose, led by the energy sector, which rose 1.15%, followed by the information technology sector, which rose 0.48%.

Investors are also watching the progress of US President Donald Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook, a move that could face legal challenges.

If Mr. Trump succeeds, he would challenge the Fed's independence by nominating a new member to the board who could support his policy proposals.

According to data compiled by LSEG, investors digested the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with most large brokerages also leaning in that direction.

New York Federal Reserve Chairperson William Williams said on CNBC that interest rates could fall at some point, but policymakers need to see upcoming economic data to decide whether it is appropriate to cut rates at the Fed's September meeting.

Software maker MongoDB jumped 38% after raising its annual profit forecast. J.M. Smucker fell 4.4% as the peanut butter maker missed expectations for Quarter 1 profit.

Jin Shi

Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as investors closely watched upcoming inflation data for clues to a rate cut, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve lingered after President Donald Trump tried to fire a Fed governor.

Spot gold rose 0.1 per cent to $3,394.49 an ounce, while US gold for December delivery closed 0.5 per cent higher at $3,448.6.

Data on US personal consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released on Friday and could provide clues to the direction of interest rates. Economists polled by Reuters expect the PCE index to rise 2.6 per cent in July, unchanged from June.

Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said: "If the PCE data is skewed and shows stronger inflationary pressures, it could raise questions about whether the Federal Reserve can actually cut interest rates in September."

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market expects a more than 87% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at next month's policy meeting.

Mr. Trump said earlier this week that he would remove Federal Reserve governor Tim Cook, whose lawyer said she would file a lawsuit to prevent Mr. Trump from firing her, kicking off a potentially drawn-out legal battle. Gold prices rose to a more than two-week high on Tuesday after Mr. Trump tried to fire Mr. Cook.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.1% to $38.57 an ounce, platinum 0.2% to $1,345.66, and palladium 0.3% to $1,091.01.

oil market

Oil prices ended higher on Wednesday after data showed that US crude inventories fell more than expected, while investors assessed the potential impact of new US tariffs on India. Brent crude futures rose 1.2% to settle at $68.05 a barrel. US crude futures rose 1.4% to settle at $64.15 a barrel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. crude oil inventories fell 2.40 million barrels to 418.30 million barrels last week, and survey analysts expected a reduction of 1.90 million barrels.

EIA data showed that U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.20 million barrels, expected to decrease by 2.20 million barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.80 million barrels, expected to increase by 885,000 barrels.

Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said: "Gasoline demand data provides support that people are getting ready to travel over the Labor Day long weekend. This is the culmination of summer driving and the last of the summer gasoline formulas."

Investors are watching US President Donald Trump double tariffs on Indian imports to 50 per cent. Tariffs on Indian purchases of Russian oil went into effect on Wednesday.

In its monthly economic assessment for July released on Wednesday, India's finance ministry said that while the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports appears limited, its knock-on effects on the economy pose a challenge that must be addressed.

U.S. envoy Witkov said Tuesday that he will meet with Ukrainian representatives in New York this week, and that Washington is also in talks with Russia to seek an end to the war.

Three people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday that Russia had increased its plan to export crude oil from western ports in August by 200,000 barrels per day after last week's attacks.

New York Federal Reserve President William Williams said Wednesday that a rate cut is possible at some point, but policymakers need to see the economic conditions reflected in the upcoming data before deciding whether a rate cut is appropriate at the September 16-17 meeting.

currency market

The dollar rose against the euro and was flat against the yen as investors focused on upcoming U.S. economic data for policy clues while continuing to worry about Federal Reserve independence.

The euro briefly hit its lowest level against the dollar since Aug. 6, falling 0.09 percent to $1.1631 at the end of trading in New York. Sterling rose 0.12 percent to $1.3496 against the dollar. The dollar fell 0.14 percent against the Swiss franc and was flat at 147.445 yen against the yen. The dollar index edged up 0.02 percent to 98.227, after a tug-of-war earlier.

Michael Boutros, senior technical strategist at StoneX, said traders are mostly on the sidelines, waiting for Nvidia's key earnings report and Friday's core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, and until we see those data points, traders are unlikely to be willing to take on any significant new risk exposure ahead of the monthly crossover.

New York Federal Reserve President William Williams said Wednesday that a rate cut is possible at some point, but policymakers need to see the economic conditions reflected in the upcoming data before deciding whether a rate cut is appropriate at the September 16-17 meeting.

While the dollar appears to have shrugged off concerns about the Fed's independence after President Donald Trump tried to fire Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook on Monday, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened. Cook's lawyer later said she would file a lawsuit to prevent her removal, which could set off a protracted legal battle.

Since returning to the White House this year, Trump has relentlessly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool, money markets are forecasting an 87.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Investors will be watching U.S. labor market and business survey data next week for clues about the future direction of Fed policy.

Political developments in France are likely to remain the focus of the euro as the prime minister battles to save his minority government ahead of a confidence vote on budget cuts on September 8.

Polls on Wednesday showed that a majority of French people want new parliamentary and presidential elections.

Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered, said: "There is a lot of concern about European politics, but I think it has eased. Confidence in European politics is higher than anyone expected six to eight hours ago." French government bonds stabilised on Wednesday, a day after the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds climbed to its highest level in five months.

Preliminary data released on Wednesday showed that producer-price inflation rose to a two-year high of 1.9 percent in June and 1.3 percent in May, in another sign of inflationary pressure on the economy.

International News

Zelensky appoints Ukraine's new ambassador to the United States, emphasizing the need to implement the U.S.-Ukraine agreement

On August 27 local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky appointed Stefanishna as the new Ukrainian ambassador to the United States. Zelensky said that the formal appointment process has been completed and the appointment order has been signed. Zelensky said that he had a conversation with the new Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Stefanishna, on the same day. The two sides have clarified the key tasks of the work of the Ukrainian embassy in the United States, the most important of which is the full implementation of all agreements between Ukraine and the United States, including those reached with US President Trump, especially in the field of defense. (CCTV News)

Zelensky announced that the Ukrainian and American delegations will meet in New York on the 29th

On August 27 local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in a video address that the Ukrainian and US delegations plan to hold a meeting in New York on the 29th. According to Zelensky, the Ukrainian delegation led by Yermak, the head of the presidential office, and Umerov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, will visit Switzerland on the 28th and transfer to the United States the next day to discuss issues related to Ukraine's security at various levels, including military, political and economic. Zelensky stressed that it is necessary to speed up the process of security guarantee negotiations. Previously, Witkov, the US special envoy for the Middle East, also said on the 26th that he will meet with Ukrainian representatives in New York this week to further promote diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

This year, the scale of US corporate repurchase reached 1 trillion US dollars, the fastest in history

According to data compiled by Birinyi Associates, US companies' share buybacks in 2025 reached $1 trillion by August 20, surpassing the record set in October 2024. In the past few months, Apple has announced a $100 billion share buyback, and Google parent Alphabet, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Bank of America have also announced buybacks worth at least $40 billion. Jeffrey Yale Rubin, president of the association, said that companies themselves will continue to "bottom fish" in the market, perform well, and have enough capital in capital expenditure. In terms of rewarding investors and business owners, this [buying back shares] is a good way.

Citi: Silver and palladium expected to face high tariffs

Silver was added to a list of 54 key minerals on which the US relies on imports on Monday, pending the outcome of a review under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs on goods deemed essential for national security. Citi expects that some metals could face targeted tariffs of up to 50 per cent either immediately or in phases by the time the October report is released. "We expect that the potential for rapid development and expansion of domestic capacity (and any industry lobbying in support of tariffs) could influence the administration's differentiated policy on different metals and minerals," analysts said. In addition, the US Department of Commerce also launched an anti-dumping investigation into unwrought palladium from Russia earlier this month. Citi's base case is that palladium will eventually be subject to tariffs through that investigation or Section 232 reporting.

White House economic adviser advises Federal Reserve Governor Cook to take temporary leave during litigation

Lisa Cook should be furloughed while she litigates the fate of the Federal Reserve board of governors, the director of the White House National Economic Council said on Wednesday. "If I were in her situation, I would be furloughed now," Mr. Hassett told reporters on Wednesday, adding that he thought it was "decent practice". Mr. Hassett said he believed the president had the right to fire Mr. Cook: "The president absolutely has the right to fire a Fed governor for good cause, and I think the allegations are serious". Mr. Trump wrote to Mr. Cook on Monday saying he had removed her "with immediate effect", citing allegations by his White House allies that she improperly claimed both properties were primary residences in two mortgage applications. Trump has previously publicly considered nominating Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chairperson.

The US Treasury Secretary has called on the Federal Reserve to conduct an internal review, naming Cook for mortgage fraud

U.S. Treasury Secretary Vincent Bescent on Wednesday renewed his call for Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell to conduct an internal review of the central bank and include mortgage fraud allegations against Fed Governor Tim Cook. "I would encourage Chairperson Powell to conduct an internal review before doing an external review," Bescent said in an interview with Fox Business. "It's a matter that needs to be addressed," he said, referring to the Cook affair. "We didn't hear her say'I didn't do it, 'she just kept saying that the president can't remove her," Bescent said. He said his view was that "if a Fed official is guilty of mortgage fraud," they should not serve on one of the nation's leading financial regulators. " The Federal Reserve is an irresponsible institution whose relationship with the American people depends on a high level of trust, and events like this undermine that trust. "

Bescent says Fed chair "definitely" to be announced in autumn

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent said in an interview that there are currently 11 "very strong" candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, and he will begin interviewing them next month. They will also be interviewed by other White House officials, and three or four candidates who stand out will be recommended to President Trump, Bescent said. Bescent also said that Trump knows some of the 11, but not all of them. He also said that the Fed chair will be announced "definitely" this fall.

The cost of electricity on the largest U.S. grid has skyrocketed, putting Republicans at risk

Soaring electricity bills are emerging as a political liability for Republicans in the upcoming elections in key swing states. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the largest area of the US grid, stretching from Virginia to Illinois, where wholesale electricity prices have been at record levels for two consecutive years. The region includes two states that will elect governors in November and four that will face fierce congressional races next year. Notably, the region gets nearly all of its electricity from natural gas, nuclear reactors and coal. That means Mr. Trump's strategy of blaming surging electricity prices on renewables, including last week's call that wind and solar power were the "hoax of the century", may struggle to gain traction.

Domestic News

Ministry of Commerce: Chinese companies have established more than 3,000 enterprises in other SCO member states

At the special briefing of the Ministry of Commerce held on the afternoon of the 27th, the relevant person in charge introduced that in recent years, the investment and industrial cooperation between China and other SCO member states has developed steadily and the scale has continued to expand. At present, Chinese enterprises have established more than 3,000 enterprises in other member states, creating more than 200,000 jobs every year. According to reports, enterprises of SCO member states have jointly implemented a number of investment and industrial cooperation projects, covering not only traditional fields such as oil and gas, agriculture, infrastructure building, but also emerging fields such as new energy, green minerals, and digital economy. Zhang Li, director of the Cooperation Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in the next step, we will continue to steadily promote a number of projects with good comprehensive benefits and great driving effect, help countries to transform and upgrade their industries and regional interconnection, effectively enhance the resilience of the regional industrial chain supply chain, and promote high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road Initiative". (CCTV News)