On August 27, the financial breakfast gold price hit a new high in half a month, causing concern about the independence of the Federal Reserve

On Wednesday (August 27, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $3391.67/ounce, and gold prices rose on Tuesday to their highest level since August 11. Market risk aversion has warmed up, mainly due to fluctuations in investors' confidence in the Federal Reserve; U.S. crude oil traded around $63.44/barrel, and U.S. oil fell more than 2% on Tuesday. The market is concerned about the development of U.S. tariff policy, the situation in Ukraine, and the possible disruption of Russian oil supplies.

Focus on the day

stock market

The S & P 500 index closed higher on Tuesday, buoyed by stocks such as Nvidia and Eli Lilly, as personnel changes deepened concerns about central bank independence.

The S & P 500 climbed 0.41 percent to 6,465.94, just shy of its record close on Aug. 14. The Nasdaq rose 0.44 percent to 21,544.27, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.30 percent to 45,418.07.

Nvidia rose 1.1% ahead of the quarterly report, which will show how the world's most valuable company is doing in a trading environment. The report could also affect Wall Street's expectations for artificial intelligence-related stocks.

The recent news that a Fed governor has been fired has sparked concerns about the central bank's independence from political intervention. After a brief dip in S & P 500 futures, stocks rallied as investors focused on expectations that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in September. Bill Merz, head of capital markets research at Bank of America Wealth Management, said: "Financial marekts are increasingly concerned about this independence. In the long run, this is a real concern. But in the short term, how much will this affect the trajectory of interest rate policy over the next six to 12 months? Signs are already emerging that monetary policy will be more accommodative over the next six to 12 months." When investors follow market developments, they will also pay attentionCBCXInformation on foreign exchange and other trading platforms.

Despite lingering inflationary pressures, traders have been pricing in a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's September policy meeting, buoyed by dovish signals from Chairperson Jerome Powell, data pointing to weakness in the labor market and related moves.

Morgan Stanley became the latest institution to predict a rate cut in September, but the upcoming release of key inflation and employment reports could prompt investors to reassess their expectations.

Lilly's shares jumped nearly 6 percent after it said its experimental pills could reduce the weight of diabetics by 10.5 percent.

The S & P 500's expected price-to-earnings ratio is about 23 times, a four-year high, and the risk of a stock market rout increases if Nvidia's results dampen Wall Street's enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related stocks.

Seven of the S & P 500's 11 sector indices rose, led by industrials, up 1.03%, followed by financials, up 0.76%.

AMD rose 2% after Truist Securities upgraded the chip stock's rating to "buy" from "hold".

EchoStar jumped 70 percent to a record high after telecom giant AT & T said it had agreed to buy certain wireless spectrum licenses from the satellite communications company for about $23 billion.

Jin Shi

Spot gold rose 0.83 per cent to $3,393.47 an ounce on Tuesday, its highest level since August 11. US gold for December delivery rose 0.5 per cent to settle at $3,433 as demand for safe havens picked up and investor confidence in the Federal Reserve fluctuated.

Bob Haberkorn, market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "The recent news that a Fed governor has been fired over related matters has brought a bit of dynamism to the gold market because the Fed is arguably the driving force of the gold market at the moment."

The personnel changes have sparked discussion of central bank independence in the market. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell hinted at a possible rate cut at the September meeting, saying risks to the job market were rising. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market now expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September to be more than 87% likely.

Haberkorn added: "If Powell signals a dovish stance on interest rates at the next meeting and cuts rates again this year, then gold prices should continue to rise."

US durable goods orders fell 2.8 per cent in July, against expectations of a 4 per cent decline, after falling 9.4 per cent in June, according to data, as investors await US gross domestic product data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure data on Friday.

Spot silver edged up 0.1% to $38.52 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.1% to $1,340.88. Palladium rose 1.5% to $1,102.65, earlier hitting its lowest since July 9.

oil market

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures settling down 2.3 per cent at $67.22 a barrel and US crude futures down about 2.4 per cent at $63.25 as investors focused on developments in US tariffs, the situation in Ukraine and possible supply disruptions from Russia.

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said: "Investors will remain reluctant to commit to either direction for the long term given the huge uncertainty created by the conflict in Ukraine and tariff policy." Brent is likely to remain in the $65- $74 trading range for the foreseeable future.

The increase in oil prices on Monday was mainly due to supply risks following Ukraine's attack on Russian energy infrastructure and the possibility of further U.S. sanctions on Russian oil.

Meanwhile, Indian imports to the US could face tariffs of up to 50 per cent, one of the highest levies imposed by Washington, after additional tariffs were announced in response to India's increased purchases of Russian oil.

Analysts at energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note: "The focus of this week's trading is the potential doubling of US tariffs on India to 50 per cent at the earliest, which will further constrain Russian oil exports, which have already been curbed by recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries."

currency market

The dollar weakened on Tuesday, falling 0.28 percent to 98.19 as market concerns over central bank independence grew.

The personnel changes sparked discussion in the market, with investors weighing concerns about politicized policies against addressable market impact.

Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Money Management, said: "Investor action remained relatively calm, with attention focused on the impact of the Jackson Hole meeting and reports in the overnight news about threats to governors and the Fed's independence." He added that policy uncertainty and a possible shift to a more accommodative stance by the Fed weighed on the dollar.

Data show that last month's U.S. durable goods orders were better than expected, while consumer confidence fell slightly in August, and the overall market was little changed.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, traders currently expect an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its September meeting.

Morgan Stanley on Tuesday became the latest institution to forecast a rate cut in September after comments last week hinted at a possible easing next month and a number of institutions around the world followed suit.

French government bonds fell on Tuesday as the likelihood of the country's minority government facing a confidence vote next month increased.

The euro rose 0.22% to $1.1647 against the dollar and the pound gained 0.2% to $1.3481. The dollar fell 0.27% to 147.36 yen against the yen and 0.28% to 0.8032 against the Swiss franc.

Fears of political instability in France, coupled with global bond markets' focus on central bank independence, have led to a sell-off in government bonds in the US, UK and Japan.

French 10-year bond yields rose to a high of 3.53 per cent, the highest since March, extending Monday's seven basis point rise. Bond yields are inversely linked to prices.

International News

U.S. Department of Transportation says it's canceling another $175 million for California's high-speed rail

On the 26th local time, the US Department of Transportation said that it will cancel another $175 million appropriation for the California high-speed rail project. On July 16 local time, US President Trump said in a post on his social media platform that the federal government will no longer provide any funding for the California high-speed rail project, calling it "a disastrous and seriously overspent'high-speed rail to nothingness'". (CCTV News)

ExxonMobil in private talks with Rosneft to return to Russia

In secret talks with Rosneft in Qatar this year, an ExxonMobil executive discussed a possible return to the sprawling Sakhalin project off Russia's far east coast if the two governments grant permission, according to people familiar with the matter. Exxon executives have asked the US government for support in the company's return to Russia, and have received a positive response. ExxonMobil's chief executive recently discussed the possibility at the White House, according to senior government officials. The Sakhalin-1 project is one of ExxonMobil's largest investments, and the company is responsible for operating and holds a 30% stake.

Relevant parties discuss the successor of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors

"We have some very good people, and I think we've selected some very good people," President Trump said when asked about the successor to the Federal Reserve governor. Trump said the Treasury secretary and commerce secretary would be involved in the decision of the successor.

The US Senate will hold a hearing next week to consider the relevant nominations

The US Senate banking committee is expected to hold a hearing next week on President Donald Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve board, according to two people familiar with the matter, according to Politico. The hearing, which has not yet been officially announced, will test the level of support for the relevant structure changes, and will also be a key venue for pressuring relevant parties. "This is now not just about the nomination itself, it has become a political show and a disguised referendum," commented a relevant congressional aide. "The situation is already beyond the nominee's control."

U.S. home prices rose at their slowest pace since 2023 in June

US house price growth slowed for a fifth straight month in June, with the index rising 1.9 per cent year-on-year, according to S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data. That was the smallest increase since the summer of 2023 and down from 2.3 per cent in May.

Apple will hold a press conference on September 9 to release iPhone 17 series

Apple is planning a big fall product event on September 9, which is expected to unveil the iPhone 17 series, which will include a slimmer flagship model. The event will start at 10 a.m. local time and will be streamed live online. The slogan of the event is "amazing". The focus of the event will be Apple's new smartphones, including an upgraded base model, two new Pro versions, and a new version with a much thinner design than any previous iPhone. Apple is also preparing to unveil an upgraded version of the Apple Watch.

Increased political uncertainty in France, related credit default swap prices rose

Credit default swap prices at banks rose as investors took a cautious approach to heightened political uncertainty in France. Franc ̧ ois Bayrou, the prime minister, faces a confidence vote on September 8, triggering jitters in French markets. "Traders are increasingly concerned about a new round of political turmoil, which could intensify in the coming weeks," Joshua Mahony at Rostro said in a note. Spreads on five-year credit default swaps at BNP Paribas rose 1 basis point to 43 basis points, according to data. Spreads on five-year credit default swaps at Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale rose 3 basis points to 49 basis points.

Domestic News

This summer, the "cruise economy" is in full swing! Global orders for sightseeing boats are pouring in

This summer, the hot weather continued, and the water sightseeing tour was favored by many consumers. From the lake islands to the confluence of rivers and seas, many scenic cruise ships were full of tourists. Tourism platform data show that this summer, the number of "sightseeing cruise" products on the platform increased by nearly 20% compared with the same period last year, and the overall reservation ticket volume increased by 45%. The continuous warming of the water sightseeing economy across the country has also ushered in a peak production season for shipbuilders. The reporter learned that since the beginning of this year, many scenic spots have accelerated the replacement of traditional oil-fired ships with new energy ships, driving a significant increase in orders for new energy ships. The relevant person in charge of the enterprise told the reporter that the order volume in the first half of the year has exceeded that of the whole year of the past year, and the production A number of industry insiders told reporters that summer water sightseeing and night swimming have driven new and updated ships. (CCTV News)

Second-hand cars go to sea to usher in a new trend

Standing at a critical juncture in the transformation of the global automotive industry, China's used car exports are ushering in new opportunities. At the 2025 China Used Car Export Ecology Conference held recently, Luo Lei, vice president of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said, "At present, China's used car exports are in the golden period of superimposed policy dividends and market outbreaks. The car ownership of over 400 million vehicles, a mature supply chain system, and cost-effective model selection provide a solid foundation for China's used car exports." Data show that in 2024, our country's used car exports have exceeded 400,000, exported to more than 160 countries and regions, becoming an emerging force to stimulate automobile consumption and promote industrial upgrading. At the same time, China's second-hand car exports also urgently need to build a coordinated development pattern guided by the government, the main body of enterprises, and the association empowered, and to break down overseas market barriers with standardized and international service systems to form a more competitive global second-hand car circulation network.