IG foreign exchange attention: key analysis of WTI crude oil

On Wednesday (July 30), WTI crude oil prices showed a narrow range after rising sharply by 3.39% overnight in the early Asian session, and are currently trading around 69.20. Concerns about supply tightening continue to rise, providing support for US crude oil prices. The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories rose by 1.539 million barrels last week.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, set a new high since June 23 to $69.76/barrel on Tuesday, closing at $69.25/barrel, up 6.3% in the past two trading days. From the perspective of traders in IG Foreign Exchange, this fluctuation has attracted widespread attention in the market.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday reiterated that the US could impose additional tariffs on Moscow if it fails to make progress in ending the conflict with Ukraine within 10 days. WTI crude prices were boosted by growing concerns that additional sanctions on Russia could lead to tighter supplies. Mr. Trump said he was not concerned about the potential impact of sanctions on oil markets or prices and said he would increase domestic oil production to offset any impact. There was no response from Russia.

Dennis Kisler, senior vice-president of securities trading at BOK Financial, said: "The updated deadline surprised many analysts and, if implemented, could tighten Russia's crude oil and fuel supplies to global markets."

API data revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week, which could limit the upside for WTI crude prices.

The American Petroleum Institute's (API) weekly crude oil inventory report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.539 million barrels in the week ended July 25, compared with a decrease of 577,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus had expected inventories to decrease by 2.50 million barrels.

According to Oilprice's calculations of API data, crude oil inventories have increased by nearly 13 million barrels this year.

Oil traders will be closely monitoring the weekly crude oil inventory report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday.

In addition, the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates will also be in focus. The Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

technical

The price of US oil is supported by the middle rail of the box and the middle rail of the Bollinger, which has helped the oil price rise to the upper edge of the oil box at 69.65 and the rebound quartile at 0.618. At the same time, it is currently running to the upper rail of the Bollinger belt. Due to the suppression of the upper rail of the box and the upper rail of the Bollinger rail, here is waiting for the finishing status of the MACD above the zero axis and the consolidation of the RSI near 50 for the first time. If the follow-up observation can be sorted above the dividing line of 68.13 in the upper half of the box, it is expected to break through the upper edge of the box at 69.65, and the next target price for subsequent breakthroughs is 72.63. For investors who follow IG foreign exchange, these technical levels are worth noting.

(U.S. crude oil daily chart, source: Internet)

Beijing time 10:12, the main US crude oil contract is now quoted at $69.25/barrel.