Gold futures rally slows, with short signals emerging near $5,000

On Thursday (April 16), during the European trading session, the price of gold showed a trend of rising and falling. Spot gold was reported at $4807.37/ounce in intraday trading, and gold futures were reported at $4808.6/ounce, up 0.10%. Gold is expected to close its fourth consecutive week of gains. This round of rebound has risen by about 18% since the launch of the 50-week index moving average (EMA), which once boosted market sentiment. However, the current disk shows that the upward momentum has weakened significantly, and there have been subtle changes in the structure of capital positions. Superimposed on the suppression effect of key resistance levels, it suggests that this round of rebound may be coming to an end, and short-term correction risks are accumulating.

Although gold may have closed up for the fourth consecutive week, performing relatively prominently in commodities, in-depth analysis found that there is a clear weakness in this round of rebound: it takes longer than the previous rise cycle, and the recovery is less than half of the previous 27% decline. Combined with factors such as the lack of a clear shift in macro-level Federal Reserve policy expectations and a pick-up in global risk appetite, gold's subsequent upside space may be limited, and even a phased pullback may occur at any time.

Gold futures technical side: gold prices are approaching $5,000 and the rally is slowing down

(COMEX Golden Week chart, source: Internet)

Looking back at the recent trend, after gold hit a record high in late January, it started a rapid downward trend due to multiple factors such as falling inflation data and strengthening the US dollar index. The maximum decline reached 27%, briefly entering the technical bear market range. However, after touching the key medium- and long-term support level of the 50-week index moving average (EMA), the bulls counterattacked and promoted the price of gold to rebound by about 18%. It is now about to achieve its fourth consecutive week of gains, and the market's long enthusiasm has picked up for a while.

Despite this, the pace of this round of repair is obviously slow - compared with the rapid trend of the previous decline, there have been many "ups and downs" in the rebound process. The price has not yet rebounded to 50% of the previous decline (the key digit of the Fibonacci retracement), and from the perspective of momentum indicators, the upward momentum is gradually fading. Especially as the price of gold approaches the important psychological round mark of $5,000, the bulls lack the motivation to continue to attack and need to be cautious. ECForex PlatformThe technical chart shows that the price of gold is under significant pressure near the $5,000 integer mark, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. In addition, this week's high price of gold has fallen back near the low point in February, which acts as a resistance level for the transformation of important support in the previous period, further strengthening the short-term suppression effect.

A potential double-top pattern is formed near $5,000, and the upward momentum is weakened

(COMEX Gold Day Chart, Source: Internet)

From the daily level chart, gold prices have formed a potential double top structure near the February low ($4,842) - a classic reversal pattern that usually means the end of the upward trend, sounding the alarm for bulls; at the same time, the small negative line closed on Wednesday, the price just fell back under pressure at the 50-day moving average, indicating that short-term moving average support has turned into resistance, and the bull attack has been blocked.

The indicator level also releases warning signals: the short-term RSI (2-cycle) shows a slight short divergence, that is, the price hits a new high but the indicator does not rise synchronously, suggesting that the upward momentum is insufficient; the 14-cycle RSI also risks falling below the 50 midline, and once it falls, it will further confirm the weakening of the short-term upward trend.

Although there are certain technical uncertainties, it cannot be ruled out that the price of gold will continue to rise slightly under the impetus of funds, but on the whole, the top may be near - the high probability is in the current price range, or the $5,000 integer mark and the $5048 high-volume node (HVN) will be completed after a small increase. Among them, $5048, as a high-volume node, has gathered a large number of long and short transaction chips. If it cannot be effectively broken through in the future, it will become an important resistance to the upward trend of gold prices.

(COMEX gold 4-hour chart, source: Internet)

From the 4-hour chart, the potential double-top pattern coincides with the weekly first resistance level (R1) to form a resonant suppression, further amplifying the short-term downside risk. At present, the price of gold has fallen slightly, temporarily stabilizing in the dense area of multiple moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day moving averages), and there may be a small rebound repair demand in the short term. However, considering the lack of overall upward momentum, the rebound space is expected to be limited, making it difficult to change the short-term weak pattern.

Key trading ideas

Combined with the technical form and key price analysis, the following trading logic reference is given: Investors passEC ForexProfessional platforms such as these can track the breakout of the above key price points in a timely manner. Bears tend to place short orders at Wednesday's high (near $4,842). The core target is to look at the weekly pivot point of $4,766. This position acts as a short-term long-short watershed, and if it is lost, it will further open up downside space;

If the price of gold effectively falls below $4,766, the follow-up will focus on the first weekly support level (S1) and the $4,600 integer mark, which has provided support many times during the previous rebound and has certain technical significance.

If the bulls make an unexpected move and break through the weekly resistance of $4,908 (R1), the short-term bearish view will be invalid, and the price of gold will once again hit the $5,000 integer mark.

If the price of gold hits $5,000, in view of the significance of the important psychological resistance at this level and the pressure of the early lock-up, it is very likely to form a phased high point, and then you can pay attention to the opportunity of the short secondary layout.

Gold futures position analysis (COT report)

The position data further confirms the pressure pattern of short-term gold prices. According to the latest COT report released by the CFTC, the net long position of gold of large speculators has declined for the second consecutive week, and asset management institutions have reduced their net long positions for the third consecutive week. EC foreign exchange analysts pointed out that this trend deserves close attention. It is worth noting that although there was a sharp strengthening of gold prices at the end of 2025, the overall net long position has already shown a continuous downward trend, reflecting that institutional investors' confidence in the logic of gold's medium- and long-term rise is gradually weakening.

The more crucial signal is that since December 2025, the short positions of asset management institutions have gradually increased, and the short positions of large speculators have also increased again last week. Although the increase in short positions is not enough to completely reverse the overall bullish pattern of the market from the current data, this trend resonates with the short signals released by the technical side - gold is about to usher in a phased inflection point, and the follow-up market may be more conducive to short dominance. EC foreign exchange analysts believe that the continued accumulation of institutional short positions means that the market's divergence on the subsequent rise of gold prices is increasing, and the risk aversion of funds has cooled down, further weakening the upward action ability of gold prices.