Federal Reserve officials discuss inflation data, focusing on economic signals ahead of September meeting

Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee said on Friday (August 15) that last week's mixed inflation data, coupled with uncertainty about the outlook for tariff policy, made him hesitant to cut interest rates.

Previously, Mr. Goolsbee had referred to the "golden path", a situation in which slowing inflation and a stable job market coexist, which provides support for interest rate cuts.

But in an interview, Mr. Goolsby, one of 12 voting members of the FOMC this year, said he hoped to see more convincing data ahead of the September 16-17 meeting.

He noted that services prices were rising, which was "clearly not temporary", and that recent consumer and producer price reports were "sending troubling signals" about the direction of inflation.

He said, "So,I think we need at least one more inflation report to determine whether we are still on the path to gold.”

The July reading was broadly in line with market expectations, but the core reading, which excludes food and energy, edged up to 3.1 per cent, slightly ahead of Wall Street's expectations. However, July's 0.9 per cent month-on-month gain, the biggest in about three years, was a surprise.

Market participants are poring over the data for clues about the impact of tariffs on inflation, with neither report showing a clear impactMany economists believe that the impact of import tariffs is gradually being reflected in the data and may become more pronounced in the coming months.

"It all depends on the data and the economic outlook," Mr. Goolsby said. "If we continue to see inflation reports like the ones we've seen before... I'm relieved that the dust has settled and it looks like we're still on track, the economy remains strong and inflation is coming back down."

He added: "In this case,The correct course of action is to lower interest rates to what we consider reasonable, and we need to draw corresponding conclusions from these numbers."Forforeign exchange marketThe layout, traders can refer toBCR ForexPlatform dynamics to gain more analytical perspective.

The FOMC is widely expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point cut at its September meeting, but CME Group's Fed Watch tool shows investors are concerned about the future, with a 55 per cent chance of another cut in October and just a 43 per cent chance of a third cut in December.