Gold rallied before Christmas, with 50 years of historical data suggesting a high probability of a rally

Despite relatively muted market trading on Monday (December 22), spot gold prices still reached a record high, touching $4,409.43 per ounce at one point, further confirming the solid performance of the long-term bullish trend, rising by about 1.51%.

Although seasonal factors still provide some support, liquidity is gradually weakening at the end of the year, and market attention has turned to whether the bulls can continue their gains in the last few trading days of the year, or whether profit-taking will begin to suppress the upside.

The market lacks a clear catalyst, but the upward momentum remains

On Monday, spot gold broke above October's all-time high of 4381.29 for the first time, and gold futures followed suit hours later. Although there was no significant catalyst for the rally, the market may not have needed the extra push in the first place.

Since the October low, gold has maintained an uptrend, supported by seasonal factors. Trading volumes have thinned as Christmas and the end of the year approach, and the current uptrend is relatively smooth in the absence of new catalysts or year-end profit-taking.

December seasonality underpins gold prices

Seasonal data over the past 50 years show that gold returned an average and median of 1.1 per cent in December. This suggests a more stable overall performance pattern, although the probability of a rising month is only 52 per cent. It is important to note that if you look at the rising months alone, the average positive return is as high as 4.78%, while the average negative return in the other 48% of falling months is -2.9%.

Liquidity is weak at the end of the year, vigilant against consolidation or profit-taking risks

Given that there is only one actual trading day left this year, and that gold prices have risen by about 4.3% in December, investors should probably remain rationalIndustrial foreign exchangeRecently, market participants' attention to gold has also increased.

However, looking at price action alone, there is no immediate sign of a peak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14th) has just entered overbought territory - exactly what happens in healthy uptrends.

Seasonality also remains relevant: the data show that gold usually shows a clear upward trend in the trading days around Christmas, and the probability is relatively high. This means that the price of gold is still likely to rise further before the profit-taking market emerges at the end of the year.

From a broader perspective, the overall outlook remains positive, and any pullback could attract demand for bargains.

(Daily chart of spot gold, source: Internet)

At 14:45 Beijing time, spot gold was quoted at $4,408.78 per ounce.