July 23 financial breakfast: The US and Europe have little hope of reaching a trade deal, gold prices have refreshed five-week highs, and Trump says Powell is leaving office

On Wednesday (July 23, Beijing time), spot gold traded near $3,432/ounce, and gold prices climbed to a five-week high on Tuesday, helped by trade uncertainty and falling U.S. Treasury yields. Investors continued to focus on U.S. President Trump's August 1 deadline for tariff talks. U.S. crude oil traded near $65.60/barrel, and oil prices fell for a third consecutive day on Tuesday, as the United States and Europe lost hope of reaching a trade deal, heightening concerns about an economic slowdown in the world's largest oil market.

Focus on the day

President Trump spoke at an event called "Winning the artificial intelligence race."

stock market

The S & P 500 index hit a record close on Tuesday after General Motors fell sharply, Tesla rallied, and investors focused on recent and upcoming corporate results and signs of progress in U.S. trade talks.

General Motors tumbled 8.1 percent after the company reported a $1 billion loss in quarterly results due to tariffs, further fueling investor concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's global trade policies. Ford Motor fell about 1 percent.

Tesla rose 1.1% the day before its quarterly results were released, and Alphabet, which is also due to report results on Wednesday, rose 0.65%.

Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird, said: "The market is cementing recent gains and sitting on the sidelines, with some significant catalysts coming in the next week or two, including the August 1 deadline for tariff negotiations and a number of major earnings announcements from the Big Seven."

Other big tech stocks fell, with Meta Platforms and Microsoft both down about 1%. Lockheed Martin tumbled nearly 11% after reporting a roughly 80% plunge in quarterly profits.

US trade policy remains a big source of uncertainty for investors and businesses as Mr. Trump's self-imposed August 1 deadline approaches, with some trade talks appearing to stall, optimism about a breakthrough deal with India waning and European Union officials considering countermeasures against the US.

The S & P 500 rose 0.06% to close at 6,309.62. The Nasdaq closed 0.39% lower at 20,892.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.40% to close at 44,502.44.

Nine of the 11 sectors in the S & P 500 index rose, led by healthcare, up 1.9%, and followed by real estate, up 1.78%.

The cumulative turnover of 18.80 billion shares on various exchanges in the United States is relatively large, and the average daily turnover of the previous 20 full trading days is 17.70 billion shares.

According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) I/B/E/S data, analysts on average expect S & P 500 companies to see second-quarter earnings rise 7 percent, with tech giants driving most of the growth.

Last week's economic data was mixed, with traders all but ruling out a rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting next week. According to CME's FedWatch tool, they now see a roughly 60% chance of a rate cut in September.

Jin Shi

Gold prices rose to a five-week high on Tuesday, helped by trade uncertainty and falling U.S. Treasury yields, as investors continued to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline for tariff talks.

Spot gold rose 1 per cent to hit its highest level since June 16 at $3,428.84 a troy ounce. US gold futures rose 1.1 per cent to $3,443.70 as benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in nearly two weeks, making non-yielding gold more attractive.

"Trade uncertainty is driving some haven demand," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. "There are several trade deals in the pipeline in the US and there are rumours that the European Union and the US may not be able to reach an agreement or are certainly not close to one."

On Tuesday, Mr. Bescent, the US Treasury secretary, said he would meet his Asian counterparts in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the August 12 deadline for a deal to avert a sharp increase in tariffs, adding that the US was ready to announce "a series of trade deals" with other countries.

At the same time, European Union diplomats have suggested that the European Union is considering broader countermeasures against the United States as prospects for a trade deal dim.

Investors are also gearing up for next week's meeting of the Federal Reserve, which markets expect to keep interest rates on hold but could cut rates in October.

Mr. Bessant also said on Tuesday that there was no need for Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell to resign immediately, a day after he called for a review of the central bank as an institution. Bowman, the Fed's vice-chairperson of financial regulation, stressed the importance of the Fed's independence amid growing pressure from Mr. Trump to lower borrowing costs.

Spot silver rose 0.6% to $39.16 an ounce, platinum fell 0.5% to $1,431.64 and palladium rose 1.4% to $1,282.82.

oil market

Oil prices fell for a third straight session on Tuesday as hopes of a trade deal between the United States and Europe faded, heightening fears of an economic slowdown in the world's largest oil market.

Brent crude futures settled at $68.59 a barrel, down 0.9 percent. The U.S. crude contract settled at $66.21 a barrel, down 1.47 percent. European Union diplomats told Reuters the European Union was exploring a broader set of possible countermeasures against the U.S. amid dimming prospects for an acceptable trade deal with Washington.

US President Donald Trump has set August 1 as the deadline for countries to reach a trade deal or face steep tariffs. He has threatened to impose 30 per cent tariffs on European Union imports if no deal is reached.

Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note: "The tariff factor appears to be becoming a bigger focus ahead of the U.S. deadline."

Two Indian government sources told Reuters that the prospects for the United States and India to reach an interim trade deal before the deadline have also dimmed.

Diesel was the biggest fall across the energy sector, reflecting concerns about the economy. The industrial fuel, which is mainly used in manufacturing, construction and heavy transport, has been the most prominent performer in the oil market in recent weeks because of tight global supplies. US ultra-low sulphur diesel futures fell nearly 3 per cent to $102.50 a barrel on Tuesday.

currency market

The dollar fell on Tuesday, with the yen one of the main gains against the greenback as investors closely watched trade talks ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline that could see the United States impose steep tariffs on goods from trading partners if no deal is reached.

Trading was generally calm on the day, with the yen rising for a second consecutive session after the results of Japan's weekend senatorial elections were digested by the market. The focus has turned to whether Tokyo can quickly reach a trade deal with Washington and the political future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

The dollar fell 0.5 per cent to Y146.54 against the yen in afternoon trading after losing more than 1 per cent on Monday on elections and a public holiday. The dollar has weakened against the yen for two consecutive sessions.

With just over a week to go until August 1, U.S. Treasury Secretary Vincent Bescent said Monday that the administration is more concerned with the quality of trade deals than the timing of their conclusion.

Asked about the possibility of extending tariff deadlines for countries that are in "productive negotiations" with Washington, US Treasury Secretary Vincent Bescent said President Donald Trump would make the final decision.

Brad Bechtel, global head of Jefferies FX, said: "The market is... ignoring the noise [referring to the August 1 tariff deadline] until something really clear happens." He added: "Even with the tariffs already in place, a lot of the economic data actually looks pretty good."

The final direction of global tariff policy remains uncertain, and this uncertainty has becomeforeign exchange marketThe huge source of pressure has kept most currencies in a narrow range, despite Wall Street's record highs.

The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.3 per cent to 97.545 after falling about 0.6 per cent on Monday. The index hit a two-week low in early trading.

The euro rose 0.2 per cent to $1.1725 ahead of a meeting of the European Central Bank this week. However, the ECB is not expected to adjust eurozone interest rates. The euro rose to a two-week high earlier in the day.

A trade deal between the European Union and the United States remains elusive, and the European Union could face tariffs of up to 30 percent as of August 1.

European Union diplomats said on Monday they were studying broader countermeasures given the bleak prospects for a deal.

Karl Chamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said: "The dollar's rally at the start of the month is waning, the euro was flat ahead of Thursday's central bank meeting, while the yen consolidated gains after the weekend's better-than-expected election results."

He added: "With a relatively calm data backdrop, the trading range is narrowing. Positions in several currency pairs are moving towards neutral and implied volatility indicators are also falling."

Investors are also concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially after Trump has repeatedly criticized Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell and urged him to resign due to the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates.

Treasury Secretary Vincent Bescent took a softer stance on Monday, saying there was no need for Powell to resign immediately, adding that he could serve until May next year if he wished.

Kathy Jones, senior fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, wrote in a research note: "It is possible to criticise the Fed's policy actions over the years, but to remove the chair simply because it is unwilling to follow the White House would be a step too far."

She warned that this would undermine confidence in the Fed, especially as inflation remained high and policy objectives were confused. If Mr. Powell were replaced with someone seen as taking orders from the government, it could lead to a weaker dollar and a sharp rise in long-term interest rates.

National News

Israeli defense minister says only two battlefields remain in Gaza and Yemen

According to a report by Israeli military radio on the evening of July 22 local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz said at a situation assessment meeting held that day that Israel is "very close to achieving its war goals, and there are still two battlefields left in Gaza and Yemen, and Israel must work hard to solve these problems." Katz also said that "the possibility of another attack on Iran cannot be ruled out." (CCTV International News)

Canada's prime minister says he will not spare no effort to reach a trade deal with the United States

Canada's prime minister sought to damp expectations of a trade deal with the US in the next 10 days, saying negotiations were difficult because of the Trump administration's changing objectives. "Canada is not going to accept a bad deal. Our goal is not to make a deal at any cost," Mark Carney, Canada's prime minister, told reporters after meeting provincial leaders in Huntsville, Ontario. "We are pursuing a deal that is in the best interest of Canadians." He added: "The objectives of the United States are many and often change."

SpaceX issues new warning to investors: Musk could return to US politics

A new message looms in the latest offer documents for SpaceX, Mr. Musk's company, that the billionaire may not really be retiring from politics. Mr. Musk, who previously served as a senior adviser to the Ministry of Government Efficiency, "may take on a similar role in the future and devote a lot of time and energy to it," according to the documents and unnamed people familiar with the matter. SpaceX has included such "risk factor" language in written documents sent to investors, the people said, the first time such language has appeared in the offer documents. SpaceX's latest offer values the rocket and satellite maker at about $400 billion, making it the world's most valuable private company. Mr. Musk and SpaceX representatives did not respond to requests for comment.

"Can't rely on the Americans anymore" Canada's decision to build new inter-provincial oil pipelines

On July 22 local time, the governors of Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta signed a memorandum of understanding to build a new east-west interprovincial oil pipeline. Ontario is the largest province in Canada's economy, while Saskatchewan and Alberta are two major oil-producing provinces. The new pipeline planned by the three provinces will replace the current Line 5 pipeline and no longer pass through the United States. "The governor of Michigan keeps threatening to cut the Line 5," said Ford, Ontario's governor. "We can't take any more risks. We need independence, we need a pipeline to the refineries in southwestern Ontario, and we need to be self-reliant." Ford said, "We can't rely on the Americans anymore. It's that simple."

Trump says the Justice Department should investigate former President Barack Obama

On the 22nd local time, US President Trump said that the Justice Department should directly target former President Obama after intelligence agencies revealed that the Obama administration had falsified Trump's "Russia collusion" materials. On the same day, when Trump was asked at the White House about the Epstein case, he quickly turned to topics such as Obama, Democrat Hillary Clinton and whether Russia interfered in the investigation of the 2016 US election. (CCTV News)

Trump: Cut tariffs on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%

US President Donald Trump tweeted on his social media: The President of the Philippines has just left the White House with many of his representatives. It was a pleasant visit and we reached a trade agreement under which the Philippines will open its markets to the US with zero tariffs. The Philippines will pay a 19% tariff. In addition, we will cooperate on the military side. He is also a very good and tough negotiator.

European Union considers cooperation with Japan to mine rare earths

Von der Leyen, president of the European Union Commission, said the European Union seeks a "competitiveness alliance" with Japan that involves the joint mining of rare earth elements. "For strategic partners like Europe and Japan, this means bringing our relationship closer together to meet the realities of our time and shape the future," Von der Leyen said. Tokyo and Brussels should "shape global trade and technology rules in line with our shared values of fairness and openness," she said. The envisioned Japan-EU alliance would oversee supply chains, particularly for key materials, batteries and semiconductors. Von der Leyen said the European Union would explore investment opportunities with Japan across Europe and for the first time said there were "strong prospects" for mining cooperation.

Urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again, Trump says Powell is about to leave office

On the 22nd, US President Trump said that Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell is about to leave office. Trump said that the current interest rate is too high, which is affecting the housing market. He said that interest rates should be reduced by 3 percentage points or even more. Since the beginning of this year, Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell and threatened to dismiss his position as Federal Reserve Chairperson to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Recently, the Trump administration has frequently mentioned that the Federal Reserve spent 2.50 billion dollars to renovate office buildings and "cost overruns", and "up the ante" on Powell. (CCTV News)

IEA: Global liquefied natural gas supply will see its largest increase since 2019 next year

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global LNG supply next year will see its biggest increase since 2019, driven mainly by increased production in North America. The IEA said in its quarterly gas market report that supply growth will accelerate by 7% to 2026, or 40 billion cubic meters per year, after growing 5.5% this year. A project in Qatar will also boost growth. "This is expected to ease market fundamentals to some extent and ultimately boost strong demand growth," said IEA gas analyst Gergely Molnar. "2026 will be the first year of the LNG boom and, to some extent, it will also be a test of how demand responds to strong growth, particularly in Asia."

The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on Houthi-related individuals and entities

On July 22 local time, the US side said that it has imposed sanctions on an oil smuggling and sanctions evasion network in Yemen and the United Arab Emirates that is said to be linked to the Houthis. The US Treasury said in a statement that the targets of sanctions include two individuals and five entities, and are important oil product importers and money laundering groups linked to the Houthis. (CCTV)

Domestic News

The scale of individual pension funds has exceeded 12 billion yuan, and nearly 90% of products have received positive returns since their establishment

The attention of individual pension funds is gradually increasing. With the emergence of the money-making effect, nearly 90% of individual pension funds have received positive returns since their establishment, and the total scale exceeded 12 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter of this year. At the same time, the number of products has recently expanded to 297, providing investors with richer choices. Industry insiders believe that under the triple drive of tax incentives, rate reductions, and long-term capital lock-in mechanism, the personal pension cake is expected to continue to grow.