The market is waiting for US and Canadian data, and the Canadian dollar is under pressure at a low level

In late Asian trading on Monday, the US dollar/Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) was under pressure, with prices hovering around 1.3750, near a three-month low. The dollar has been weak recently, and its interest rate outlook and job market conditions have become the focus of market attention.

In the United States, the Dollar Index (DXY) continued last week's decline, hovering near an eight-week low. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a 64.3% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at least twice by the end of 2026, and the policy dot plot also indicates that the federal funds rate will fall to 3.4%, implying at least one additional rate cut.

The market's pessimistic outlook for Federal Reserve policy, combined with Trump's support for further interest rate cuts, limits the room for the dollar to rebound. Market participants are closely watching the release of US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for November on Tuesday for further clues on the direction of the dollar.

In Canada, the Canadian dollar has been strong recently, and the market expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to maintain interest rate stability in the short term. Previously, the BoC's policy statement emphasized that the current level of interest rates is sufficient to bring inflation close to the 2% target, provided that the economy and inflation perform in line with expectations.

In addition, Canada will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November on Monday, and the year-on-year increase is expected to rise to 2.4% from 2.2% in October, which could further support the Canadian dollar.

Overall, the dollar/Canadian dollar is under pressure in the short term, and the exchange rate is ahead of the release of key dataRaise one's headWait, market sentiment is skewed towards caution.

Key data releases from the United States and Canada will be the main drivers of the short-term market.

From the daily chart, the short-term trend is weak, the price is close to a three-month low, and the downward trend has not changed significantly.

The short-term moving average shows a downward arrangement, with the 100-hour SMA and the 20-day moving average at the 1.3800 area forming pressure; the key support below is located in the 1.3750 and 1.3730 areas, and further support is focused on the 1.3700 area.

The upper resistance focuses on the 1.3800 and 1.3830 areas.

The daily RSI is in a neutral and weak area, and the kinetic energy of the MACD red column is weakened, suggesting that the short-term may continue the weak oscillation pattern.

The overall technical signal shows that the USD/CAD is under short-term pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the fluctuation of the exchange rate after the release of key data from the United States and Canada.

Editorial opinion:

USD/CAD is currently near a three-month low. The dollar is under pressure and the Canadian dollar is solid. Tuesday's US non-farm and Canadian CPI data will provide direction for the market. The short-term strategy is mainly to wait for the direction to be chosen.