guide table of contents

JGBTYields and inflation concerns

Technical Strength Features

Intervention risk potential impact

Support resistance interval prediction

Outlook on future trends

On Tuesday (March 3), the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen was latest at 157.699, touching near 157.817 during the session, continuing the recent volatile upward pattern. Yields in the Japanese government bond market rose as a whole on the same day, and the 10-year benchmark yield rose to 2.12%, an increase of 6 basis points from the previous trading day, reflecting that the market's pricing of changes in the situation in the Middle East has shifted to inflation pressure. This background is directly related to the trend of the yen exchange rate, and the authorities' monitoring of market fluctuations has increased simultaneously.

JGBTYields and inflation concerns

Japanese government bond futures opened at 132.81 on Tuesday, down 43 jump points from the previous close, and fell back again after rebounding to 132.91 in early trading. Selling pressure was mainly concentrated on 10-year spot notes and ultra-long-end inactive notes. US bond yields rose simultaneously in the afternoon Asian session, further intensifying the sell-off. The 10-year bond auction results were generally in line with expectations. The re-opening JB381 bid stopped at 2.129%, with a tail of 0.7 basis points and a bid multiple of 3.30, higher than the previous auction's 3.02, but lower than the average of 3.36 in the past six auctions.

It is worth noting that the 25-year inactive bonds also saw significant selling. The market had expected large life insurers to sell less low-interest coupons due to accounting guidance changes, but the latest news shows that a large Japanese life insurer will continue to replace low-interest coupons with higher-yielding 30-year bonds and use equity ROI to hedge bonds against losses. This development exceeded the judgment of some participants and pushed long-end yields under pressure.

JGBTThe rise in yields is directly related to changes in the situation in the Middle East. Events were initially seen as a risk-off factor, prompting funds to buy government bonds to cover shorts, but the continued correlation has turned into concerns about inflationary pressures in energy importing countries. This expectation is further strengthened by the possible response of central banks. As a net energy importer, Japan's monetary policy space is also indirectly affected. The yield curve as a whole steepens, if inflation expectations remain high in the short term,JGBTSelling pressure may continue into subsequent trading days.

This fundamental change resonates with the dollar-yen exchange rate. Higher domestic yields theoretically support the yen, but under the current inflation-led logic, funds are more inclined to seek dollar assets, resulting in pressure on the yen. The linkage between the two provides a clear observation window for subsequent exchange rate movements. Some market participants through AvaForex PlatformPay attention to this linkage trend.

Technical Strength Features

The 4-hour chart of the US dollar against the yen shows that the price has started to rise around 152.680 at the end of January. After touching 157.652 in early February, it quickly corrected, reaching a minimum of 152.264, and then regained its upward trend. It has now returned to the previous high area. The overall structure shows a typical oscillatory upward structure. Since February 21, the bullish trend has been clear. The K-line has risen steadily along the Bollinger middle rail. The pullback range is limited, and the buying power continues to dominate.

Bollinger Band (20,2), the upper rail is 157.859, the middle rail is 156.576, and the lower rail is 155.292. The current price is running close to the upper rail, indicating that the short-term trend is in a strong expansion phase. The middle rail provides dynamic support, and the early platform 155.5-155 section constitutes a deeper retracement reference.

In the MACD (26, 12, 9) indicator, the DIFF value of 0.504 is above the DEA value of 0.422, the MACD column value is 0.165 and the red column continues to diverge, and the bullish kinetic energy remains strong. However, the indicator is already at a relatively high level, and the possibility of top deviation should be paid attention to in the future. The log correlation on the 30th and 60th shows that the correlation coefficients of the US dollar against the yen and the euro against the yen are both higher than 0.50, and the movements of the two currency pairs tend to be synchronized, further confirming the overall weakness of the yen.

The technical and fundamental aspects come together here.JGBTThe upward trend in yields reinforces inflation expectations and weakens the attractiveness of the yen. The K-line pattern verifies the bullish control situation by steadily recovering lost ground after a small correction. It is currently in a critical state of breaking through the previous high, and the rhythm of the disk is shaped by fundamental events and the resonance of technical indicators.

Intervention risk potential impact

While both technical and fundamental factors point to further upside for the dollar against the yen, the attitude of the Japanese authorities towards currency volatility has always been an important constraint. Amid the current market volatility, the Japanese finance minister said on Tuesday that the authorities were in close contact with overseas financial officials and were closely monitoring financial marekt with a "great sense of urgency", sending a clear signal that although the threshold for intervention is high, the monitoring is on high alert.

History suggests that if direct intervention occurs, the huge technical gap between the close of 147.45 on October 3 and the opening of 149.02 on October 6 could be filled. This gap is located far below the current price level, and if triggered, it will pose a significant impact on bullish expectations. Markets currently view intervention risks as background factors rather than immediate events, but these expectations may gradually increase as exchange rates approach higher resistance.

The pressure on the yen is accompanied by a simultaneous weakening of the euro, and the dependence on energy imports amplifies the impact of changes in the local situation on the currencies of the two countries. The existence of intervention risks makes the upward path of the exchange rate show a "gradual but limited" character: fundamental and technical support continue to rise, but potential actions at the policy level set an invisible ceiling for excessive appreciation.

Support resistance interval prediction

Referring to the USD/JPY contract, the short-term pressure range focuses on 157.652 to 157.859. The former is the high point in February, and the latter corresponds to the Bollinger Band upper rail. The logical basis is that the K-line has tested 157.652 several times and fell slightly, while the Bollinger upper rail is a dynamic trend boundary, and the breakout needs to be accompanied by transaction amplification and further expansion of the MACD column. If it stands above 157.859, it opens the possibility of testing the high of 159.23 on January 23 and 159.45 in 2026.

The support interval corresponds to 156.576 to 155.5-155. The former is the Bollinger band middle rail, which provides a dynamic support for trend continuation; the latter is the early shock platform, which constitutes a stronger retracement buffer. The interval logic is derived from the controllable pullback amplitude in the upward structure of the shock. The Bollinger band middle rail is the central axis, and the price is maintained above this range to maintain long control.

The intraday concerns include: breakout confirmation near 157.80. If the K-line closes and stands firm, the pressure range will move up; conversely, when the drop test 156.50-156, it is necessary to observe the buying strength and whether the MACD column narrows. The above interval is based on the current 4-hour chart parameters and historical highs and lows. It is only used as a reference for the disk structure and does not involve specific trading decisions. Investors can useAva ForexThe platform obtains real-time quotes to assist in analysis.

Outlook on future trends

Looking at the market outlook, if the situation in the Middle East continues to raise inflation expectations, andJGBTYields remain volatile at a high level, and the intervention signal of the Japanese authorities has not been significantly strengthened. The dollar is expected to continue to fluctuate against the yen and gradually test higher resistance areas. On the contrary, if the monitoring results are translated into real action, or the inflationary pressure is eased in stages, the exchange rate may quickly retreat to the vicinity of the Bollinger medium track and re-enter the range consolidation.

Overall, the resonance between fundamental inflation concerns and technical bullish momentum still dominates, but intervention risk as a core variable will determine the sustainability of the upside. The market needs to continue to track the results of JGB auctions, the statement of the Ministry of Finance and the latest developments in the Middle East to grasp the pace of change.

[Frequently Asked Questions]

Question one:JGBTWhat are the main factors driving the rise in yields on Tuesday?

Answer:The market's repricing of the ongoing situation in the Middle East was the core driver. Previously, related events were initially seen as a risk-off factor prompting the purchase of government bonds, but the subsequent changes turned to inflation concerns, especially pressure on energy importers. The 10-year yield rose 6 basis points to 2.12%, and the end of the auction and the long-end selling pressure reflected this shift, resonating with the strengthening of the dollar against the yen.

Question 2: What are the strong technical signals for the dollar against the yen?

Answer:The price is running close to 157.859 on the upper rail of Brin, the MACD red column continues to diverge, and the DIFF is above the DEA. The K line has steadily recovered from the low of 152.264 to the previous high of 157.652. The pullback is small, and the buying power is stable. The correlation on the 30th and 60th shows that it is synchronized with the euro against the yen, and the overall long control pattern is clear.

Question 3: What is the practical significance of the Japanese Finance Minister's statement on the exchange rate?

Answer:The statement emphasizes "a strong sense of urgency" to monitor and maintain contact with overseas, indicating that intervention is not an immediate option, but the risk is lurking in the background. Once triggered, it may fill the technical gap of 147.45-149 .02, and set an invisible upper limit for the current price near 157.70 to restrain excessive appreciation.

What is the logical basis for predicting resistance intervals?

Answer:Pressure 157.652-157.859 is based on the historical high point and Bollinger's upper rail, and the breakthrough needs to be completed; support 156.576-155.5-155 relies on the middle rail and the early platform to maintain the trend above. The logic is derived from the superposition of dynamic boundaries and historical levels in the oscillating upward structure, which is only for the observation of the disk structure.

Question 5: How does the situation in the Middle East continue to affect the trend of the yen?

Answer:The relevant changes have caused the market to focus on energy import-dependent countries and central bank inflation responses.JGBTYields therefore rise, weakening the attractiveness of the yen. The simultaneous weakening of the euro further amplifies the effect, which is bearish for the yen in the short term, but if the situation eases or intervention intervenes, it will be weak or reversed in stages.