Financial morning highlights: The gold 4700 pass is long and empty, and US oil rebounds

In early Asian trading on Monday (May 11, Beijing time), spot gold weakened slightly, trading near $4,890/ounce, continuing the recent volatile pattern near the $4,700/ounce mark. Market participants continue to pay attention to diplomatic developments in the Middle East, with some analysts pointing out that inKCM ForexLooking at the platform, gold prices showed a wide range of fluctuations in the session. Driven by relevant news, U.S. crude oil opened up nearly 3%, trading near $98.22/barrel, and may test the $100/barrel mark within the day.

Intraday Focus

stock market

Both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs on Friday, buoyed by gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks such as Nvidia and SanDisk and better-than-expected jobs data, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor index up 55 per cent in the second quarter. The two indices set new highs several times last week as investors focused on strong corporate earnings and put aside concerns that the situation in the Middle East could push up oil prices. First-quarter earnings of the S & P 500 are expected to rise nearly 29 per cent year-on-year.

The U.S. employment growth in April exceeded market expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep current interest rates unchanged. Traders expect the benchmark rate to remain at 3.50% -3.75% until the end of the year. Specifically, the S & P 500 rose 0.84% to close at 7,398.93; the Nasdaq rose 1.71% to close at 26,247.08; and the Dow edged up 0.02% to close at 49,609.16. The technology sector performed strongly, rising 2.7%. The two major indexes closed their sixth consecutive week of gains, setting a record for the longest consecutive gains since October 2024. The cumulative gains for the year were 8% and 13%, respectively.

Despite regional firefights and Brent crude rising above $100 a barrel, optimism about corporate earnings helped investors ignore the risk factor. Of the 440 S & P companies that reported results, 83 per cent beat earnings expectations. However, Expedia saw demand fall 9 per cent as regional conflicts affected it.

Gold market

Gold prices edged higher on Friday, posting weekly gains. Spot gold closed up 0.6 per cent at $4,715.18 an ounce on Friday, up 2.15 per cent from the previous week, as optimism over the possible end of the conflict eased concerns over inflation and interest rates.

The director of metal trading at High Ridge Futures pointed out that the current performance of gold is more similar to that of risk assets, and its rebound is closely related to the prospect of easing the situation in the relevant regions. The pullback in energy prices increases the possibility of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

A weaker dollar has made gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies, and lower energy prices have eased inflation concerns. In addition, U.S. job growth exceeded expectations in April, and gold prices briefly extended their gains after the data was released. Spot silver rose 2.3% to $80.30, platinum rose 1.3% to $2047.88, both recording weekly gains, while palladium fell 0.5% to $1,487.71.

crude oil market

Brent crude rallied as much as 3 per cent in intraday trading on Friday, but its gains narrowed as traders looked to a longer ceasefire in the conflict. Brent crude rose 1.23 per cent to $101.29 a barrel, while US crude rose 0.64 per cent to $95.42. However, both indicators fell more than 6 per cent last week.

It was reported that the US side rejected the latest response to the proposed ceasefire, saying it was "completely unacceptable". Again Capital partners said the market is on the verge of a breakthrough in negotiations or a reignition of the situation, and there is a general consensus that a deal will be reached and the details will be finalized. The intraday market was volatile, and analysts at Price Futures Group said the market was still watching the progress of the relevant headlines.

Analysts at PVM Oil Associates pointed out that issues such as when sea lanes will be restored, inventory conditions during peak gasoline consumption and the prospect of sanctions have not been resolved. The founder of Vanda Insights believes that the market's expectations of de-escalation are too optimistic, and each rebound appears slow and incomplete.

foreign exchange market

The dollar weakened last Friday, falling 0.4% to 97.85, its second consecutive week of losses. It hit a recent low of 97.62 earlier last week, influenced by cautious optimism among investors that conflicts in related regions could be resolved quickly.

Ballinger Group analysts pointed out that the United States is trying to avoid an escalation of the situation and hope that the ceasefire is not affected. Morgan Stanley strategists expressed bearish on the dollar index in a note, believing that a recovery in risk appetite and an increase in risk premiums will push the dollar index down to 95 in the coming months. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.17808 and was on track to close slightly higher last week.

Although U.S. jobs rose more than expected in April and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold, the dollar's response was muted. Analysts believe the volatility of the non-farm payroll data should keep the market from focusing too much on the monthly data.

The dollar fell 0.2 per cent to 156.695 against the yen as intervention and verbal warnings curbed the sell-off. Japan's chief currency diplomat said intervention was unrestricted and in daily contact with the US, but MUFG said a renewed escalation in the region could increase the risk of a spike in crude prices, undermining Japan's efforts to prevent the greenback from breaking through the 160 level.

Risky currencies rose: Sterling was boosted by British Prime Minister Starmer's statement that he would not resign, rising 0.6% to $1.3626; the Australian dollar rose 0.5% to $0.72455; and the New Zealand dollar rose 0.4% to $0.59615, all boosted by a recovery in risk appetite.

International Newsletter

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 93.8%.

According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 93.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 6.2%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 88.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 10.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 0.3%.

The source said that the relevant parties have communicated the response to the United States

On May 10 local time, a source said that the relevant parties have communicated the response to the US plan to the United States. Earlier in the day, the relevant parties quoted sources familiar with the matter as saying that the latest response to the US plan has been formally submitted to the mediator. The current stage of negotiations will focus entirely on stopping relevant actions in the region.

The US Department of Energy has released a signal: consider suspending fuel taxes

Asked whether he supported a suspension of the federal fuel tax, the US energy secretary said the US supported all measures to lower prices. In an interview, he said the US was constantly looking for different options. Asked whether he would consider a suspension of the federal fuel tax, he responded that he was open to all options.

The first batch of evacuees from the epidemic-related cruise ship "Hondius" have been flown to Madrid by military plane

At noon local time on May 10, the first batch of passengers and crew evacuated from the cruise ship "Hondius" took off from the airport in the southern part of Tenerife on a military plane and headed for Madrid, the capital of Spain. It is understood that the evacuees have undergone a rigorous preliminary medical assessment at the port of Granadia. To ensure the safety of the transfer process, all evacuees wore protective masks and blue special protective suits on the transfer bus and plane, and the transfer vehicle was escorted by the Spanish National Guard throughout the process. The Spanish health minister confirmed at the evacuation site on the same day that the evacuees are currently in stable physical condition and have not shown symptoms of related infections. As planned, the military plane will land at the Torrejon de Ardos air base in Madrid. After landing, the personnel will be transferred directly to the Gomez Ulia Central Defence Hospital, where they will undergo three weeks of medical isolation and further virus testing. At present, the repatriation of foreign passengers from the port of Tenerife is still in progress. People from the Netherlands, Germany, Greece and other countries will be evacuated one after another after completing the screening. The last batch of evacuated Australian passengers is expected to be repatriated tomorrow. The Spanish government said that after all personnel were evacuated, the cruise ship will leave the Canary Islands for Rotterdam in the Netherlands for deep disinfection and sterilization of the whole ship.

Navy Commander: Self-built light submarines are on standby in relevant waters

On the 10th local time, the relevant naval commander said that the self-built light submarines are on standby in the relevant waters according to the threat level, combat power and demand, for proliferation deployment and related tasks.

The relevant parties say that if there is another conflict, it will enter a new battlefield

On May 10, a spokesperson for the relevant side said that if another miscalculation occurs and action is launched against the relevant parties, there will be other unexpected options. These options include new and more advanced equipment, new ways of fighting and, most importantly, new areas of warfare. He said this means that the conflict will enter areas that the relevant parties did not anticipate and did not consider in their plans, and have the ability to surprise the other side in these areas.

US media: Relevant parties establish a secret base in the desert against the other party

US media reported on the 9th, citing US officials and people familiar with the matter, that the relevant parties have established a secret military base in a desert for related operations, and launched operations against the troops who almost discovered the base in the early stage of the operation. The report quoted sources as saying that the base was established shortly before the recent operation against the relevant parties, and the United States is aware of it. The base is also a logistics hub for the relevant air forces. The relevant parties have deployed search and rescue teams at the base, the report said. According to the people familiar with the matter, the relevant Air Force special forces capable of carrying out assault missions are also stationed at the base.

Some lawmakers have urged the resumption of escort operations in relevant waters

Some US lawmakers have publicly urged the resumption of escort operations aimed at diverting stranded ships in the relevant waters. Previously, the plan was suspended to make room for diplomatic negotiations. Relevant people called for the resumption of escort operations as soon as possible to ease the pressure on global energy supplies caused by the blockade of the strait. At present, relevant parties are still negotiating related matters, but shipping in the waters remains largely stagnant. The relevant remarks reflect the strategic anxiety of some lawmakers to speed up the opening of the channel.

More than 40 countries held a meeting to plan escort operations in relevant waters

More than 40 countries met on Monday to discuss a British and French-led escort mission to escort ships in the waters. Countries are expected to provide capabilities such as mine clearance, escorts and air patrols. Mr. Healy, the UK defence secretary, said diplomatic agreements were being translated into practical military plans to restore confidence in shipping through the waters. He will co-chair Monday's meeting with Mr. Watland, the French defence minister. Britain will deploy a destroyer to participate in the mission. The move follows criticism of the UK and other countries' reluctance to commit naval power to help restore navigation to the waterway, and criticism of the UK for offering to send aviation far later than it actually needs.

Domestic trends

Our country's economic growth momentum is surging

The State Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission released the leading indicators in various fields of the economy in April on May 10, showing the general trend of steady improvement in the economy. In terms of investment, the active level of digital infrastructure investment has increased rapidly, and investment has accelerated to gather in new tracks. The latest data from the State Information Center shows that in April, the amount of capital investment in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots increased by 175.2% year-on-year. Infrastructure projects in the fields of data, computing power and network won the bidding amount by 61.7% year-on-year, and the new momentum of economic growth continued to activate. With the fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand, consumer goods trade-in and other policies continue to make efforts, superimposed on many primary and secondary school spring break and outing travel boom, in April, the consumer market continued to grow in scale and structural optimization. In April, the search volume of keywords such as "spring outing" and "flower appreciation" increased by 118.1% and 43.4% respectively; the consumption heat around scenic spots, urban parks, greenways and other outdoor places further increased compared with last year, and the demand for outing drove instant retail destinations to gather in parks and scenic spots, and the order volume increased by 10.5% month-on-month. In terms of foreign trade, in April, the export momentum of high value-added products such as new energy vehicles and consumer electronics was good, and the operation of foreign trade showed strong resilience and vitality.