Analysis of the impact of economic events on gold and silver

If the U.S. current account deficit widens, the country's currency depreciates. Bad for the dollar. Good for gold.

If the U.S. current account surplus widens, the country's currency appreciates. Good for the dollar, bad for gold.

★ Trade deficit is also called "trade deficit", which corresponds to "trade surplus"

If the U.S. trade deficit widens and imports exceed exports, it will be bad for the dollar. Good for gold.

If the U.S. trade surplus widens and imports are smaller than exports, it will be bad for gold. Good for the dollar.

Consumer Price Index

If the index rises too much and there is inflationary pressure, banks will raise interest rates, bullish on the dollar and bearish on gold.

If the index rises too much, it is already inflated, and the bank will tighten the currency, which is bad for the dollar and good for gold.

The number of non-agricultural employees

The non-agricultural value decreases, indicating that the economy is entering a depression. Businesses reduce production. Bad for the dollar, good for gold.

The increase in non-agricultural value indicates that the economic situation is healthy. It is conducive to raising interest rates, good for the dollar, and bad for gold.

★ Unemployment rate

The falling unemployment rate represents a healthy development of the overall economy, which is good for the dollar and bad for gold.

Rising unemployment rates represent a slowdown in economic development, which is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.

★ New home sales

Home sales rose or fell short of expectations, bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold.

Sales volumes are falling or lower than expected, bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.

★ Durable Goods Orders (DurableGoodOrders)

If the data increases, it indicates that the manufacturing situation has improved, which is positive for the dollar and negative for gold.

On the contrary, if it decreases, it indicates that the manufacturing industry has contracted and regressed, which is bearish for the dollar and positive for gold.

Michigan Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer confidence is on the rise, and consumption is expected to grow. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which is positive for the dollar and negative for gold.

Consumer confidence is falling, consumption is expected to decrease, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, bearish the dollar, positive for gold

★ 1. Gross domestic product GDP, inverse to gold.

Usually higher GDP means better economic development, higher interest rates, stronger exchange rates and weaker gold prices. Investors should look at the results of GDP in the quarter compared with the previous quarter and the same period last year. Higher or higher-than-expected growth can be regarded as positive.

Industrial production index, inverse to gold.

The index rises, indicating that the economy is improving, and interest rates may rise. It should be bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold; vice versa.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is inverse to gold.

The PMI is expressed as a percentage, often using 50% as the dividing point between economic strength and weakness: when the index is above 50%, it is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion. Bullish on the dollar, bearish on gold. When the index is below 50%, especially very close to 40%, there are fears of economic depression, and it is generally expected that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Bullish on the dollar, bullish on gold.

★ 4. Durable goods orders, in reverse with gold.

If the data increases, it indicates that the manufacturing situation has improved, which is good for the US dollar and bad for gold. If it decreases, it indicates that the manufacturing industry has contracted, which is bad for the US dollar and good for gold.

5. Employment report, in reverse to gold.

Since the release time is at the beginning of the month, it is generally used as the keynote of the economic indicator for the month. Among them, the non-agricultural employment population is an important data for estimating industrial production and personal income. A decrease in the unemployment rate or an increase in the non-agricultural employment population indicates that the economy is improving, and interest rates may rise, which is favorable for the dollar and bearish for gold; otherwise, it is unfavorable for the dollar and bullish for gold.

6. The producer price index (PPI) is inverse to gold.

In general, increases in the producer price index are mostly bullish for the dollar, bearish for gold; decreases are bearish for the dollar, bullish for gold.

7. Retail sales index, inverse to gold.

The increase in retail sales represents an increase in personal consumption expenditures and an improvement in economic conditions. If interest rates are expected to rise, it will be favorable for the US dollar and bearish for gold; conversely, if retail sales decline, it will represent a slowdown or a downturn in the economy, and interest rates may be lowered, which will be bearish for the US dollar and bullish for gold.

The Consumer Price Index is inverse to gold.

When discussing inflation, one of the most commonly mentioned price indices. When the consumer price index rises, there is inflationary pressure. At this time, the central bank may raise interest rates to control it, which is bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold. On the contrary, when the index falls, it is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold. However, because most of the products related to life are final products, their prices only rise but not fall, so the consumer price index cannot fully reflect the reality of price changes.

★ 9. New housing starts and construction permits building indicators, in contrast to gold.

Because changes in residential construction will directly point to a recession or recovery. Generally speaking, an increase in housing starts and construction permits, which are theoretically positive for the dollar, will push the dollar stronger and bearish gold. A decrease in housing starts and construction permits, or lower than expected, will put pressure on the dollar, bullish gold.

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits every week is in the same direction as gold.

It is divided into two categories, first-time applications and continuous applications. In addition to the weekly figures, the four-week moving average will also be published to reduce the volatility of the figures. The change in the number of jobless claims is one of the most eye-catching economic indicators in the market. The United States is a completely consumer society. Consumer sentiment is the biggest driver of the economy. If the number of people applying for unemployment benefits every week increases due to unemployment, it will seriously dampen consumer confidence. It is bearish against the dollar and bullish against gold. The lower the data, the better the labor market and the optimistic outlook for economic growth, which is good for the dollar and bearish against gold.

The leading indicator of the US ECRI is in reverse with gold.

The leading indicator is a comprehensive indicator that measures the overall economic movement. It can provide an early indication of the economic development in the next few months and changes in the business cycle. It is an important tool for investors to predict the direction of interest rates in the early stage. It is one of the most important economic indicators for predicting future economic development. It shows the economic outlook of the United States. If the leading indicator of ECRI in the United States was higher than the previous value last week, it will be positive for the dollar and negative for gold; otherwise it will be negative for the dollar.

The core retail sales in the United States this month reversed with gold.

The retail sales index is used to measure changes in the amount of consumer spending in the retail market. Core retail sales are calculated by excluding retail sales data for automobiles, food, and energy. An increase in retail sales represents an increase in personal consumption expenditures and an improvement in economic conditions. If interest rates are expected to rise, it is beneficial to the dollar; conversely, if retail sales decline, it represents a slowdown or a downturn, and interest rates may fall, which is bearish for the dollar.

The US monthly trade balance, the trade deficit, goes in the same direction as gold.

The trade account reflects the state of merchandise trade between countries and is an important indicator for judging the state of macroeconomic operation. Total imports exceed exports, so there will be a "trade deficit"; if exports exceed imports, it is called a "trade surplus"; if exports equal imports, it is called a "trade balance".

If a country often runs a trade deficit, its national income will flow out of the country, causing the country's economic performance to weaken. If the government wants to improve this situation, it must devalue the country's currency, because the decline in currency value, that is, in disguise, reduces the price of export commodities and improves the competitiveness of export products. International trade conditions are a very important factor affecting foreign exchange rates. Therefore, when the foreign trade deficit expands, it will be bad for the dollar, which will fall, and it will be good for gold; conversely, when there is a foreign trade surplus, it will be good for the dollar and bad for gold.

Net capital inflows into the United States are inverse to gold.

Net US capital inflows are net inflows from purchases of Treasuries, equities and other securities by foreign investors after subtracting investments by US residents in foreign securities. They are considered a broad measure of capital flows.

The net capital inflow is in a surplus (positive) state, which is better than expected, indicating that the net inflow of US foreign exchange is positive for the US dollar; on the contrary, it is in a deficit (negative) state, indicating that the net outflow of US foreign exchange is negative for the US dollar.

The U.S. equipment utilization rate (also known as capacity utilization) is inverse to gold.

The US equipment utilization rate (also known as capacity utilization rate) is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment, representing the degree of capacity utilization. When the equipment utilization rate exceeds 95%, it means that the equipment utilization rate is close to the full point, and the pressure of inflation will increase as the capacity cannot be handled. In the case of market expectations that interest rates may rise, it is bullish for the dollar. On the contrary, if the capacity utilization rate is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that there is too much equipment idling, the economy is in recession, and the market expectations that interest rates may decrease.

Last week's U.S. Red Book commercial retail sales (annual, monthly) were in reverse with gold.

The current strength of the economy can be measured by the increase in retail sales, which represents an increase in personal consumption expenditures and an improvement in economic conditions. If interest rates are expected to rise, it is beneficial to the dollar; conversely, if retail sales decline, it represents a slowdown or a downturn, and interest rates may be lowered, which is bearish for the dollar.

Last week, API crude oil inventories in the United States reversed with gold.

Last week, API (American Petroleum Institute) crude oil inventories in the United States affected international crude oil prices. Theoretically, if inventories decrease, crude oil prices will rise, bullish on gold; if inventories increase, crude oil prices will fall, bearish on gold.

18. New home sales, the opposite of gold.

It refers to the number of houses that have signed a sale contract. Since home buyers usually subscribe to houses through mortgages and mortgage loans, they are more sensitive to current mortgage interest rates. Real estate market conditions reflect the level of consumer spending of residents. If consumer spending is strong, it indicates that the country's economy is doing well. Therefore, in general, the increase in new home sales is theoretically a positive factor for the US dollar, which will promote the strengthening of the US dollar and be bearish on gold. Declining or lower-than-expected sales will put pressure on the US dollar, which is bullish on gold.

Consumer confidence index is inverse to gold.

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy and has an important impact on the U.S. economy. To this end, analysts track consumer confidence indices for clues about future consumer spending. The consumer confidence index has risen steadily, indicating that consumers are optimistic about future income expectations and that consumer spending is showing signs of expanding, which is good for the economy. It is bullish for the dollar, and vice versa. The consumer confidence index is released twice a month, once at the beginning of the month and once at the end of the month

The current account deficit widens, which is good for gold.

The current account is the main item on a country's income and expenditure account, which records the outflows and inflows of funds between a country and foreign countries, including due to factors such as the import and export of goods, labor services, investment income, income from other goods and labor services, and one-sided transfers. If the balance is positive? surplus?, it means that the country's net foreign wealth or net foreign investment has increased, which is more favorable to the local currency. If it is negative? deficit?, it means that the country's net foreign wealth or investment is less. A country's current account deficit widens, and the country's currency value will blink.

The US EIA (American Energy Institute) changes natural gas, inversely to gold.

On the other hand, it reflects the energy utilization rate of the United States, which in turn reflects the development of the US economy, and also has an impact on the international crude oil price. The data is greater than the previous value, reflecting the good energy utilization rate of the United States, which is bullish on the dollar and bearish on gold.

Overall, there are only two factors that affect gold:

On the one hand, the rise and fall of the US dollar index is inversely proportional to the price of gold;

On the other hand, the price of oil rises and falls, and it goes up and down with the price of gold!

When conducting market analysis on the Aofu platform, it is necessary to combine various factors. In addition, the above correspondence should be carefully analyzed according to the specific situation of the market. It cannot be applied blindly. Under different market environments and conditions in different periods, there are individual data and the correspondence between gold will change in the opposite direction. Investors must understand the market analysis methods at that time. For example, the US dollar is often used as a safe haven tool now, and gold as a risk asset sometimes moves in the same direction as the stock market.