seasonal theory

Seasonal theory holds that there are also seasonal fluctuations in stock price trends. American technical analysts have found that, taking the Dow Jones Industrial Stock Index as an example, the stock market tends to rise in certain months of the year, such as in January, July, August, and December. The probability of stock prices rising is much greater than the probability of falling.

In fact, there have been about three out of every four years in the US stock market this century, with share prices typically rising from the end of November to the end of December. The reasons for this phenomenon are more complex, such as related to dividend periods or related to taxes. Of course, such fluctuations are often small, not even enough to cover the costs of speculative trading (including commissions). In addition, this seasonal increase is difficult to clearly distinguish from the main upward trend (long-term trend).

Due to the influence of political seasons (regular presidential elections, etc.) and commercial seasons (such as transportation, beverages, releases, air conditioning equipment and other industries with strong seasonality), market share prices will also change to varying degrees. Of course, this also needs to consider the actual situation of different countries and regions, including many differences in fundamentals and technical factors.