August 21 Financial Breakfast: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is Coming! Focus on Powell's Speech

On August 21, this week's focus will be on the 2023 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with the theme of "Structural Changes in the World Economy"; follow Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, or provide more clear signals for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy outlook.

Beijing time on Monday (August 21), this week focuses on the 2023 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with the theme of "Structural Changes in the World Economy"; pay attention to Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, or provide more clear signals for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy outlook.Monday ForwardMarket News

The Turkish central bank has set a target for banks to reduce exchange rate-linked deposits

Turkey has moved away from the tools used to capture currency depreciation, with the country's central bank telling the banking sector to reduce the share of currency-linked deposits in total deposits. According to a decree published by Turkish state media on August 20, if customers do not convert a specific percentage of currency-linked deposits into regular local-currency lira deposit accounts, the banks accepting these deposits will have to buy additional government bonds. As the lira depreciates, exchange-linked accounts can receive a return guarantee equivalent to the depreciation, or a preset regular interest rate if the exchange rate remains stable. Since the introduction of measures to capture exchange rate depreciation in December 2021, the total amount of exchange rate-linked deposits in the Turkish banking sector has reached about 3.40 trillion lira ($125 billion), accounting for more than 28% of total deposits. At the same time, Turkey's central bank has raised the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for foreign exchange deposits to 29% (previously 25%), while the reserve requirement for accounts with a maturity of up to one year is set at 25%, which will force banking institutions to hold more foreign exchange at the central bank.

India plans to ban the export of four rare metals, lithium, beryllium, niobium and tantalum

The Indian government is considering banning the export of four rare metals, lithium, beryllium, niobium and tantalum, in order to ensure the country's self-sufficiency in important mineral resources. "The government plans to ban the export of rare metals such as lithium, beryllium, niobium and tantalum because of their important role in the energy sector and in safeguarding national security and achieving technological achievements," said a senior government official.

The Argentine government has frozen fuel prices until the end of October this year

Argentina's energy minister said on the 18th that Argentina's government has agreed to freeze fuel prices until the end of October. Yesterday, Sergio Massa, Argentina's economy minister, said that after reaching an agreement with the relevant industries, fuel prices will be frozen until October 31 this year as a measure to curb "triple-digit inflation". Fuel prices rose 12.5% in Argentina on August 14. He stressed that that price increase would be the last before the end of October this year.

Shanghai Airlines Exchange: Transportation demand in China's export container market remained stable this week, with the composite index falling slightly

According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, this week, China's export container transportation market was generally stable, and transportation demand remained basically stable. Due to different supply and demand fundamentals, airline freight rates rose and fell differently, and the comprehensive index fell slightly. On August 18, the Shanghai export container comprehensive freight index was 1031 points, down 1.2% from the previous period.

MIIT Minister Jin Zhuanglong: China's total computing power ranks second in the world, and it will further improve its computing power and implement high-quality development top-level design

The China Hashrate Conference was officially opened in Yinchuan. Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out in his opening speech that China's hashrate industry has begun to take shape. Next, we will optimize the layout of infrastructure, focus on building data center clusters, further improve the implementation of high-quality development of hashrate top-level design, increase R & D investment around key links such as computing, network and storage, break through a number of iconic technology products and solutions as soon as possible, and accelerate the application of new technologies and new products.

Russian Foreign Minister: There is currently no prospect of negotiations between Russia and Western countries on the Ukraine issue

In an interview with International Life magazine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that there is currently no prospect of negotiations between Russia and the West on Ukraine. "As a result, there is no prospect of negotiations between Russia and the West yet," Lavrov pointed out. "At the same time, Western sponsors are constantly pushing the regime in Kiev to raise the stakes. We believe that the hypocritical calls for negotiations by the West are a tactical ruse to buy time again, to give the exhausted Ukrainian army a chance to breathe and regroup, and to restock them with weapons and ammunition. But this is the way of war, not the way of peaceful settlement. We know this very well."

Precious metal

Gold prices did not change much last Friday, but the weekly trend is set to decline for the third consecutive week. The recent US economic data has been good, and the market's bet that interest rates will remain at higher levels for a longer time has increased."The problem with gold is competing with instruments that yield 4-5 per cent, such as bonds, compared to gold that doesn't yield," said Phillip Streerial, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. "Gold doesn't seem to be an ideal asset class in the current environment."

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note: "Gold is likely to continue to struggle to attract investor demand until something collapses, either a credit event, a weaker dollar or the perception that the FOMC has shifted its focus to rate cuts."

According to CME's Fedwatch tool, traders now expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% through 2024 while awaiting guidance from next week's Jackson Hole summit.

Economic worries spurred fresh haven demand as China's physical gold premium jumped this week to its highest level since December 2016. "We continue to expect easing from slowing inflation and rising unemployment, which should support gold," said strategists at Macquarie.

Spot silver rose 0.1 per cent to $22.70 an ounce, platinum gained 2.1 per cent to $908.38 and palladium gained 2.8 per cent to $1,251.61, both set to fall weekly.

crude oil

Oil prices rallied about 1 percent on Friday on signs that U.S. crude output would slow, but both indicators also ended their longest weekly streak since 2023 on heightened concerns about global demand growth.Both indicators rose on Friday after industry data showed the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US fell for a sixth week in a row, a leading indicator of future output that is likely to exacerbate the expected supply squeeze for the rest of the year.

The production cuts imposed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led to those concerns, which at one point pushed prices higher for seven consecutive weeks since June. In the seven weeks to August 11, Brent crude rose about 18% and U.S. crude rose 20%.

Rob Haworth, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Asset Management, said: "Investor concerns remain focused on the tension between slowing global growth and continued tight global supply. Prices are likely to remain in range for now."

Concerns are also growing that the Federal Reserve's move to raise interest rates to fight inflation is not yet complete. Higher borrowing costs will hinder economic growth, which in turn will reduce overall demand for oil.

foreign exchange

The dollar was flat on Friday, but was set for a fifth straight weekly rally, its longest streak in 15 months, as concerns about the economy and bets that U.S. interest rates will remain high fueled demand for safer assets.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.01 percent to 103.380, having earlier hit a two-month high of 103.680. The dollar is set to gain 0.5 percent this week. "The dollar continues to rally," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera. "The market has pushed back the timeframe for a possible easing by the Federal Reserve because the U.S. economy is performing much better than expected."

Minutes from the Fed's last meeting last week showed that most members of the rate-setting committee continued to see "significant upside risks to inflation", and strong economic data this week, particularly on retail sales, also provided support for further tightening.

The weaker yen, which strengthened 0.38 per cent to Y145.29 against the dollar after touching a nine-month low of 146.56 on Thursday, made traders wary of the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities.

Last autumn, the dollar surged above 145 yen, triggering the first intervention by Japanese authorities in decades to buy yen. The Australian dollar rose 0.04 per cent to $0.640 after touching a nine-month low of $0.6365 on Thursday.

In other currencies, the pound fell 0.05% to $1.2741 after British retailers reported a bigger-than-expected drop in July sales. The euro rose 0.04% to $1.08745 after touching a six-week low of $1.0856 on Thursday.