Crude oil trading warning: geopolitical factors reassess the oil market, short-term fluctuations may increase

The global crude oil market has entered a highly sensitive phase as the issue of passage through the Strait of Hormuz continues to attract attention. Previously, the market mainly focused on the possibility of excess supply and demand in 2026, but the recent price trend shows that the short-term pricing has been significantly tilted towards geopolitical factors.

Brent crude oil rose sharply to breach the $80 mark on Monday before falling back as markets began pricing in longer supply disruptions. In Asian trading on Tuesday, U.S. crude oil

It rose slightly, trading near $71.50. Although it failed to break through yesterday's high, short-term bullish sentiment remains relatively high.

From the perspective of major investment banks, Citi: short-term anchor at $85, tail risk at $120

Citigroup raised its forecast for short-term Brent crude to $85 a barrel and predicted that oil prices could remain in the $80-90 range amid disruptions to shipments.

In a more aggressive scenario, the probability of a $120 hit to Brent crude in the event of a direct hit to regional oil and gas infrastructure is assessed as 20 per cent. This calculation emphasizes not a simple supply and demand gap, but a "transport accessibility" issue.

HSBC: Spare capacity cannot replace transportation channels

HSBC pointed out that OPEC + has about 4.60 million barrels per day of spare capacity, and its actual effect depends largely on transportation conditions.

About 19 million to 20 million barrels of oil equivalent need to be exported through the Strait of Hormuz every day, accounting for nearly a fifth of global supply.

If the strait is cut off, the capacity of the alternative channel is not enough to fully cover the original volume, and the idle capacity may only become a "paper number".

This puts the risk of oil prices on a clear upward slope.

Physical constraints: block for more than 25 days or trigger a passive production cut

According to JPMorgan calculations, the combined onshore and offshore storage capacity of Gulf oil producers can support up to about 25 days of normal production.

Once the blockade lasts longer and storage facilities become saturated, it will force oil-producing countries to reduce or even stop production.

This means that the risk is no longer just price fluctuations, but disruptions to the physical aspects of the supply chain.

The risk premium has been partially factored in

Goldman Sachs Group believes that the current risk premium of about $18/barrel is equivalent to the risk of a six-week outage.

Even with backup pipelines and strategic reserves, price shocks are difficult to fully hedge.

The oil market trading framework has shifted from an inventory cycle to a channel safety cycle.

From a technical perspective, the trend of WTI crude oil is more representative.

daily structure

The WTI daily line has completed the upward break on the previous finishing platform, and the price has regained its footing above $71. The moving average system has begun to turn into a bullish arrangement, and the 5th and 10th moving averages have diverged upward, indicating that the short-term trend has reversed.

The MACD indicator formed a golden fork near the zero axis, and the red bar gradually enlarged, and the momentum improved significantly. If the price stabilizes above $71, it will open up further room to explore the $75 range. The first support below is at $71

。

Key resistance level: $75 psychological barrier.

4 hour level

The 4-hour chart shows that WTI entered a high-level shock finishing stage after the sharp rise. Bollinger Band openings expanded, prices ran around the upper track, and short-term bullish momentum continued.

If the price correction does not fall below $70, it is a strong consolidation structure; if it falls below this level, it may cover the gap to around $68. Overall, the trend is too large, but the volatility has been significantly magnified.

Editor's point of view: From the observation of the WeTrade platform, the core variable of the current oil market has changed from "supply and demand difference" to "transportation security premium".

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries nearly a fifth of global energy flows, is a typical systemic node. If there is continued uncertainty at this node, the price hub will naturally rise accordingly.

In the short term, above $70 may become a new operating range; if the situation persists in the medium term, WTI may test the $80 or even higher range; in extreme scenarios, it is not unthinkable that Brent crude oil will reach $120.

The oil market has entered a period of high volatility, and the trading logic is significantly different from before.

The future price trend will depend more on the traffic status of the strait than on traditional inventory data.